New market study, "Romania Agribusiness Report Q3 2011", has been published

July 4, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI View: A recovery of the Romanian economy is underway and the worst of the government's IMFbacked austerity package is over. Still, the effects of two years of recession continue to weigh on consumer confidence. We are nevertheless seeing growing confidence among investors, particularly in the dairy industry, which is seeing expansion in preparation for expected continuous rising demand. There are also positive signs in other sectors, with a ban on Romanian pork exports looking likely to be lifted soon.

Key forecasts

*  Wheat production in 2010/11 expected at 6.67mn tonnes, up 19.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) due to favourable weather and increased investment in fertilisers.
 *  Barley acreage has fallen to the benefit of corn, prices for which are soaring. For 2010/11 we are forecasting barley production of 1.26mn tonnes, down 3.5% y-o-y.
 *  With corn prices soaring, we expect plantings to rise in 2010/11 and are forecasting production of 9.50mn tonnes.
 *  In 2010 we estimate Romanian milk production was 5.16mn tonnes, down 1.3% y-o-y due to slackening demand and herd cutbacks. We forecast production in 2011 of 5.12mn tonnes, down 0.7% y-o-y.
 *  In 2011, we expect rising feed prices and reduced demand due to government austerity measures will deter poultry production. Production to fall to 277,000 tonnes.
 *  In 2010, we estimate pork consumption of 399,000, down 3.6% as austerity measures took their toll, with a further reduction to 397,000 tonnes expected in 2011.
 *  Romanian economy to grow 2.1% in 2011 following two years of recession.

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Industry developments

In 2010 cultivation of MON810 corn fell to just 800 hectares. The crop has failed to gain widespread acceptance and is generally used by farmers only when there is risk of infestation. The environment ministry's proposed ban on genetically modified organisms has also led to uncertainty over whether farmers can cultivate MON810 or not and a subsequent decline in popularity.

French dairy giant Danone, which leads the market with a 35% share, is increasing its presence in Romania. In May 2011, Danone Romania General Manager Stephane Batoux announced that the company grew 10% in 2010 to reach revenue of EUR113mn. The company plans to invest EUR4.7mn in 2011 in order to increase the capacity of its Bucharest factory and improve logistics.

There was bad news for the industry in March 2011 when the EU's Food and Veterinary Office (FVO) released the results of an audit of Romanian authorities' attempts to control Salmonella. The report, based on the results of inspections in August and September 2010, said there were weaknesses in case of enforcement in cases of non-compliance with biosecurity regulations.

At the time of writing in late May, there had been no announcement of a resumption of pork exports to the EU, which have been subject to a ban. A move is expected soon. In December 2010, the EC told Romanian officials that in order to remove the ban, 'compartments' would need to be created at the county level for both production and processing. Only farms under strict control of veterinary authorities would be allowed to export pork to EU members.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Romania Agriculture SWOT
- Romania Political SWOT
- Romania Economic SWOT
- Romania Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Romania Dairy Outlook
- Table: Romania - Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Romania Livestock Outlook
- Table: Romania - Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Pork Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Pork Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Beef & Veal Production & Consumption
- Romania Rice Outlook
- Table: Romania - Rice Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Rice Production & Consumption
- Romania Grains Outlook
- Table: Romania - Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Barley Production
- Table: Romania - Wheat Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Barley Production
- Romania Sugar Outlook
- Table: Romania - Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
Commodity Price Analysis
- Monthly Softs Update
- Cocoa
- Table: Cocoa
- Coffee
- Table: Coffee
- Milk
- Table: Milk
- Sugar
- Table: Sugar
- Grains Update
- Corn
- Table: Corn
- Rice
- Table: Rice
- Soybean
- Table: Soybean
- Wheat
- Table: Wheat
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Consumer Outlook
- Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Trade
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.