New Market Report Now Available: Ukraine Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2011

July 4, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI View: Ukraine's pharmaceutical market will be one of the fastest growing markets in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) coverage area over the next five years. In 2011, the country's pharmaceutical market will surpass its previous peak in 2008 before the country's economy experienced one of the worst downturns in the region during the economic crisis. The country's huge potential is clear: it is a European Union (EU) neighbour; it has a large population; and significant urban residency. However, its political risk also remains outsized and while the present government enjoys a degree of stability not seen since before the Orange Revolution, it is also seen as authoritarian, overly close to Russia and could spur destabilising protests and fresh political infighting. In the healthcare sector, the potential introduction of a mandatory health insurance scheme could be transformative.

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Headline Expenditure Projections

*  Pharmaceuticals: UAH23.24bn (US$2.92bn) in 2010 to UAH26.20 (US$3.35bn) in 2011, up 12.8% in local currency terms and 14.6% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast down from Q211 due to readjustment of exchange rate forecasts.
 *  Healthcare: UAH80.35bn (US$10.11bn) in 2010 to UAH92.18 (US$11.79bn) in 2011; +14.7% in local currency terms and +16.6%. US dollar forecast down from Q211 due to readjustment of exchange rate forecasts.
 *  Medical devices: UAH6.41bn (US$806mn) in 2010 to UAH7.41 (US$947mn) in 2011; +15.6% in local currency times and +17.5% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast down from Q211 due to readjustment of exchange rate forecasts.


Business Environment Rating: Ukraine's ranking slipped from ninth to 13th out of the 20 CEE countries in the rankings this quarter. Its decline was due in part to a reduction in potential rewards for investors and in part to improvements in the scores of several other players in the rating. The country's enormous long-term growth potential remains sharply limited by poverty and political instability.

Key Trends & Developments

*  Some 14 pharmaceutical manufacturers closed down and surrendered their licences in 2010, according to statistics from the State Medicines Agency. The number of closures was partly due to continued economic difficulties facing smaller producers and partly driven by an increased inspections regime, which led to 41 instances inspectors shutting down a production line due to violations in 2010. Some 137 plants continue to operate in Ukraine and BMI expects their numbers to fall further under pressure from imports.
 *  It is unknown whether Ukraine will follow the example of other large CIS markets Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus in implementing a state-backed import-substitution policy. In May 2011, the State Medicines Agency held a second meeting to discuss the implementation of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov's orders to increase the share of domestic production of medicines available on the Ukrainian pharmaceutical market.


BMI Economic View: Accelerating economic expansion in Ukraine has seen us revise upwards our expectations for revenue growth in 2011. However, a lack of meaningful fiscal reform means that our 2011 budget deficit forecast remains unchanged, with the consolidated government's fiscal shortfall coming in at 3.8% of GDP. We note that politically unpopular fiscal consolidation measures have fallen by the wayside, posing risks to the country's budgetary outlook beyond 2011.

BMI Political View: Political tensions are rising between Ukraine and Russia, as the former moves into the concluding stages of negotiations regarding its Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the European Union. We expect Russia to step up its efforts to dissuade Kiev from pursuing greater ties with the EU. Ukraine's Svoboda and other opposition groups held demonstrations in Kiev on April 27 over multiple issues they believe are injurious to the country's sovereignty.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Ukraine Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Ukraine Political SWOT
- Ukraine Economic SWOT
- Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rating
- Table: Emerging Europe - Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q311
- Rewards
- Risks
Ukraine - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
- Intellectual Property Issues
- Pricing and Reimbursement Issues
- Other Market Entry Barriers
Industry Developments
- Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2007-2015
- Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
- Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
- Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: Ukraine - Economic Activity
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2007-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Manufacturing Sector
- Wholesale
- Retail
Company Monitor
- Arterium
- Gedeon Richter
- Krka
- Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.