Market Report, "South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q3 2011", published

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "South Africa Petrochemicals Report Q3 2011"
June 25, 2011 - PRLog -- The South African polymers market is set for a resurgence in 2011, according to BMI's latest South Africa Petrochemicals Report. Consumer spending continues to show signs of life, boosted by the low interest rate environment, ongoing wage increases and rising asset prices. Nevertheless, the overall picture for the South African economy is one of only moderate growth. We are forecasting annual economic expansion of 3.5% in 2011 from 2.8% in 2010 followed by an average 4.2% over 2012-2015. Private consumption will support growth due to an accommodative monetary policy and significant wage increases. This is spurring growth in demand for consumer durables, which in turn has fuelled growth in the market for a wide range of polymers.

Full Report Details at

However, this will be partly offset by the effects of sluggish investment, with the pace of expansion notably slower than pre-financial crisis levels of 2.0-5.0%, and while World Cup-related spending may have raised the figures over recent years, we are still somewhat concerned over the outlook for investment. Moving forward, we are mindful of the fact that sentiment towards South Africa has weakened following the long-running spate of industrial action coupled with high unemployment and rising political risk.

Perhaps the biggest risk to our outlook stems from China. Our Asia analysts are forecasting real GDP growth of 8.3% in 2011, but risks are both to the upside and the downside, with significant implications for South Africa. If the Chinese economy manages to sustain its recent speedy growth (and overheating, in our view), we may revise up our forecasts for South African export growth, given that China is a leading export destination. Less positively, if the slowdown in China turns out to be more marked than we currently anticipate, South Africa would feel the pain through reduced export revenues. This would have concurrent downside risks for manufacturing segments that consume polymer products. Yet, the positive impact of rising demand on the local industry could be undermined by an influx of Chinese imports, made cheaper by the strength of the rand.

In BMI's Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Business Environment matrix, South Africa comes seventh with 53.3 points, unchanged since the previous quarter due to an improvement in its country risk score. It lies 2.2 points behind Israel and 6.1 points ahead of Turkey. The South African petrochemical industry is the largest in Africa, although relatively small by international standards. It contributes about 5% of GDP and accounts for 25% of manufacturing sales. The industry is reshaping itself, striving to bring plant capacities closer to world production levels, exploiting niche markets, acquiring foreign assets and promoting foreign partnerships, although it will also face challenges from new capacities in the Middle East and Asia. South Africa has the second largest refining sector in Africa after Egypt, with a total refining/liquid fuels capacity of 695,000b/d. It controls a significant portion of the regional market for refined products.

Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- South Africa Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
- South Africa Political SWOT
- South Africa Economic SWOT
- South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Global Petrochemicals Overview
- Petrochemicals Market Overview
- Financial Results
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q410-Q411 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl)
Africa Regional Overview
- Table: Africa's Gas Reserves, 2010 (bn cubic metres)
- Table: Africa's Oil Reserves, 2010 (bn barrels)
- Table: Africa's Cracker Capacity, 2009-2015 ('000 tpa)
South Africa Market Overview
- Market Structure
- Table: South Africa's Cracker Capacity, 2010-2015
Industry Trends And Developments
- Sasol
- Upstream Developments
- Alternative Fuels
Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: South Africa's Chemicals And Petrochemicals Sector, 2007-2015 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: South Africa - Economic Activity; 2006-2015
Company Profiles
- Air Liquide
- Dow South Africa
- Sasol
- Shell
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:South African, Petrochemicals, Petrochemical, Rand, Capacities, Asset, Plastic, Asia, Nevertheless, External
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