"Australia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research recommends "Australia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available
 
June 21, 2011 - PRLog -- The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.4% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 6.8% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.

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Full Report Details at
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In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Australia's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 6.2%, while its share of production is put at 12.3%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 5.6%, with the country accounting for nearly 18% of supply.

Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.

Australian real GDP increased by an estimated 2.8% in 2010. We are now predicting average annual GDP growth of 2.7% between 2010 and 2015. There is no state oil industry, but domestic and leading international companies are investing heavily in gas production and LNG exports to help offset declining oil output. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at about 620,000b/d in 2013 then falling to about 580,000b/d by 2017. Consumption is forecast to increase by about 1% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 993,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 437,000b/d by 2015.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in Australian oil production of 28%, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 620,000b/d, before falling steadily to 366,840b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 8.3%, with growth of less than 1% per annum throughout the period and the country using 1.04mn b/d by 2020. While oil output is expected to decline, gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 50bcm in 2010 to a possible 122bcm by 2020. Demand is also expected to rise rapidly as gas plays an increasingly important role in the overall energy picture, with 10-year demand growth expected to be 33.3%. Production growth will far outpace demand growth, however, and we see export potential rising from an estimated 18.1bcm in 2010 to nearly 80bcm by 2020, all in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's long-term oil and gas outlook can be found at the end of this report, including regional and country-specific forecasts to 2020.

Australia is still at the head of BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table, thanks to its leading position in the updated upstream BE rating that reflects its balance of strong gas production/export potential, world-class regulatory structure and solid risk environment. However, the 16-point upstream rating gap between it and second placed India flatters Australia as it is due largely to the poorer country risk environment in India. Indeed, given the greater potential for more rapid growth in both Vietnam and India, the gap should narrow over the medium term, particularly as the country risk environment improves in both countries. Australia is further down the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its status as a mature, deregulated and competitive energy market with limited growth potential. It shares sixth place out of 15 with Indonesia. It could slip further down the rankings as country risk improves elsewhere in the region.About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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