Market Report, "Indonesia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011", published

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Indonesia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011"
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June 20, 2011 - PRLog -- The latest Indonesia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.9% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 10.9% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.

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In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. Indonesia's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 7.47%, while its share of production is put at 18.86%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.56%, with the country accounting for 14.47% of supply.

Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.

BMI assumes Indonesian real GDP growth hit 6.1% in 2010. We foresee average annual growth of 6.1% in 2010-2015. Efforts are being made by the Indonesian authorities to encourage investment in new oil and gas supply, in order to stem the decline in production. We are estimating oil and gas liquids production of no more than 896,000b/d by 2015, although the country is expected to have pumped 1.0mn b/d in 2010. Consumption is forecast to increase by up to 2.5% per annum to 2015. Our estimates imply demand of 1.45mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 553,000b/d by 2015. Gas production, rising to an estimated 80.6bcm by 2015, should provide end-period export potential of 31.1bcm, with supply risk on the downside.

Between 2010 and 2020 we forecast a reduction in Indonesian oil production of 24.2%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 763,000b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 23.7%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.60mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 76.5bcm in 2010 to a peak of 90bcm by 2017-20. With demand growth of 73.3%, this provides an export capability peaking at 46.7bcm in 2011, before falling to 24.2bcm by 2020, largely in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.

Indonesia is now ranked equal eighth, alongside Japan and Pakistan, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) rating league table. This reflects its share of eighth place with China in BMI's updated upstream ratings, with a relatively strong resource position offset by poor output growth prospects, a deteriorating reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and extensive state involvement. The country sits three points ahead of Thailand, with some chance of a change in position during the coming quarters. Indonesia ranks equal sixth, alongside Australia, in BMI's downstream ratings, reflecting its low level of retail site intensity, limited refinery capacity expansion plans and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook. It is just ahead of Thailand, and may struggle to defend its position over the longer term.About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Tags:Oil, bd, Gas, Supply, Indonesian, Opec, Crude, Thanks, Eighth, Ratings
Industry:Energy, Industrial, Research
Location:Massachusetts - United States
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