China Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011: New research report available at Fast Market Research

New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "China Oil & Gas Report Q3 2011"
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June 19, 2011 - PRLog -- The latest China Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 38.8% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 49.9% of supply. Regional oil use of 20.6mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.4mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rise to around 29.6mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 7.6mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.0mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase to 8.2mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 18.37mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.3mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.

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In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region consumed around 511.5bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 653.9bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 405.8bcm in 2010 should reach 556.7bcm in 2015, implying net imports falling from around 105.7bcm to 97.2bcm. China's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 19.1%, while its share of production is put at 20.6%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 21.4%, with the country accounting for nearly 15.8% of supply.

Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and Eurozone should be marginally higher than last year, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan's growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.

Chinese real GDP growth in 2010 was an estimated 10.3%. We are forecasting average annual growth in 2010-2015 of 8.1%. While partly privatised, the oil and gas industry remains under state control, with PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC charged with maintaining domestic production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids output of no more than 4.11mn b/d by 2015, although the country is thought to have pumped 4.08mn b/d in 2010. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 23.2% in 2010-2015, implying demand of 11.48mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 7.36mn b/d by 2015.

Between 2010 and 2020 we are forecasting a decrease in Chinese oil production of 4.48%. Crude volumes should peak in 2014 at 4.14mn b/d, then fall steadily to 3.90mn b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 48.84%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum by the end of the period and the country using 13.31mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from an estimated 84bcm in 2010 to a possible 98bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 111.17%, this provides an import requirement rising to 108.4bcm - increasingly in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.

China is now ranked equal third, alongside Vietnam and behind India, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table, reflecting its equal eighth place (with Indonesia) in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings. A strong resource position is countered by a less impressive regulatory structure and substantial state involvement. The risk environment is also less attractive than for some Asian peers. Over the medium to long term, China has the capability to progress further up the rankings and claim a higher slot in the upstream league table. The country shares first place with India in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its status as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It is seven points clear of third-placed Japan.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- China Political SWOT
- China Economic SWOT
- China Business Environment SWOT
China Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
- Asia Pacific Region
- Composite Scores
- Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
- Upstream Scores
- Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
- China Upstream Rating - Overview
- China Upstream Rating - Rewards
- China Upstream Rating - Risks
- Downstream Scores
- Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
- China Downstream Rating - Overview
- China Downstream Rating - Rewards
- China Downstream Rating - Risks
Business Environment
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Unconventional Gas
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: China Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Long-Term Energy Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In China Of Over 200,000b/d Capacity
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Table: China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve
- Table: China's Commercial Oil* Storage Capacity

Full Table of Contents is available at:

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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