Recently released market study: South Africa Commercial Banking Report Q3 2011

June 11, 2011 - PRLog -- Moderate Growth Underway  The South African banking sector continues its recovery, with the annual growth of loans and deposits  edging higher. We believe moderate expansion will take place over the medium term, with assets forecast  to increase by 10.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011 and by 12.0% in 2012.  The South African banking sector is cementing its recovery. The most recent published data from the  South African Reserve Bank (SARB) show that the annual growth of loans and deposits continued to rise  in Q410. Total asset growth in local currency terms stood at a respectable 5.4% y-o-y in December,  although it is worth pointing out that expansion rates are still far below the levels achieved prior to the  global financial crisis. For comparison, over much of 2007 annual growth rates were above 20.0%.    Client loans also continued to rise during the final quarter of 2010, although the growth was more muted.  In December, they increased by just 2.7% y-o-y. In our view, this reflects lingering concerns about the  strength of the macroeconomic recovery and the associated creditworthiness of businesses and  individuals. Although headline real GDP growth figures have been relatively encouraging - the South  African economy grew by 4.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q410 on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis  - investment is still relatively weak and unemployment remains high (25% in Q111).    Given the weakness of the domestic economic environment, it is hardly surprising that South African  banks are looking abroad for growth opportunities. One bank that is really pushing forward in this regard  is FirstRand. One of the bank's subsidiaries, First National Bank (FNB), the third largest consumer  bank in South Africa, was granted a licence to operate in Tanzania in March 2011. FNB will start  operations in the middle of the year after the South African regulatory authorities gave their approval.  FirstRand is also looking to get involved in the Nigerian banking sector. According to media reports, it is  in advanced talks with Nigeria's Sterling Bank and sources said it plans to invest 'meaningful amounts  of capital'.    Although other South African banks are likely to follow in FirstRand's footsteps and make a foray into  Nigeria, the overall picture will continue to be dominated by the domestic market. We expect a broad  continuation of recent trends in South Africa. We anticipate that the recovery will continue, albeit at a  slower pace than the growth achieved prior to the global financial crisis. We forecast asset growth of  10.0% in 2011 and 12.0% in 2012; client loan growth of 8.5% in 2011 and 10.0% in 2012; and client  deposit growth of 12.0% in 2011 and 15.0% in 2012. This is in line with our outlook on the overall  economy. We forecast sub-trend real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2011 and 4.0% in 2012. Although the  consumer sector is expected to continue its rebound, rising imports and potentially weak investment are  expected to keep a lid on headline growth.

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Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/169438_south_africa_commercial...
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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (ZARbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At December 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2011-2015 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011
- Table: Projected Levels (ZARbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Table: South Africa Commercial Banking SWOT
- South Africa Political SWOT
- South Africa Economic SWOT
- South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: South Africa's Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Africa Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2009
- Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits 2009-2010 (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2010-2011
South Africa Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: South Africa Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In South Africa's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Registered Banks
- Table: Registered Mutual Banks
- Table: Registered Local Branches Of Foreign Banks
- Table: Banks In Final Liquidation
Company Profiles
- Standard Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Standard Bank, 2004-2008 (ZARmn)
- Absa Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Absa, 2004-2008 (ZARmn)
- FirstRand
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Nedbank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn,unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1694...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.