Market report from Business Monitor International: "Bulgaria Defence & Security Report Q3 2011"

New Defense market report from Business Monitor International: "Bulgaria Defence & Security Report Q3 2011"
 
May 31, 2011 - PRLog -- At this time, Bulgaria faces no probable threat from either inter-state aggression or terrorism. This is reflected in our very high Security Rating of 97 (out of 100) for inter-state risk and 91 for terrorism risk.

On the other hand, our Security Rating with respect to criminal risk is just 43, the third lowest of the 20 European countries rated. While Bulgaria seems to face no high level or external threats, it has the misfortune to be a hub for Eastern European organised crime and illegal trafficing of weapons, drugs and people. Criminal activity and the institutionalised levels of corruption that inevitably accompany it are very significant problems for Bulgaria and represent an ongoing impediment to its development.

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Full Report Details at
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Bulgaria does now have a reasonably stable political system. The minority GERB government has now been in power for more than a year, with the support of two coalition partners, the nationalist Ataka party and the Blue Coalition. The GERB government clashes with the current president, Georgi Parvanov, but has the chance to capture that office in this year's presidential election on October 23.

Bulgaria returned to positive economic growth in 2010 after suffering a reversal in 2009 due to the GFC. That growth, however, came almost exclusively from a growth in exports while the domestic economy remained in negative territory. In 2011, however, export growth is expected to slow but the domestic economy will recover and we expect to see real GDP growth of 2.6% during 2011.

During the Soviet era, Bulgaria was a significant manufacturer of small arms and light weapons for the USSR and its allies. The period since the end of the cold war has been difficult for Bulgaria's defence industry. Output and employment have fallen very substantially. While there are some successes to report the balance has changed so that Bulgaria is now predominantly an importer of defence equipment, albeit with offset provisions incorporated into many contracts. The new need is for more sophisticated systems that allow interoperability as part of NATO. In this role, Bulgaria is sending a frigate, 'Drazki' (in English, 'Daring') to participate in NATO's Operation 'United Protector' patrolling off Libya's coast to enforce a UN arms embargo.

The national goal is to build a smaller more professional defence force, but this is being hampered by economic considerations. A contract for the supply of five Spartan C-27J transport aircraft from Italian aerospace company Alenia Aeronautica is a case in point. The deal was signed in 2006 but financial difficulties meant the programme stalled after the delivery of the second aircraft in 2008. In March 2011, under a renegotiated arrangement a third and last aircraft was delivered to the Bulgarian airforce.

A white paper published by the new government in mid 2010 acknowledged that the previous plan was unsuccessful because the programmes for the modernisation of the forces significantly surpassed the country's economic capacity' and also that the processes had been 'laced with corrupt practices.'

The white paper, whose recommendations have been accepted by the government, proposes a focus on interoperability with NATO and set the budget for the defence forces as being, 'a relatively constant share of GDP for the Ministry of Defence budget for the next four years - no less than 1.5%, and including other defence expenses and the expenses of military pensions - not less than 2%.' The goal to utilise and develop local defence industries is also established in the plan.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Bulgaria Security SWOT
- Bulgaria Defence Industry SWOT
- Bulgaria Political SWOT
- Bulgaria Economic SWOT
- Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Japan After The Quake
- Global Hotspots: Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Korea
- Wild Cards To Watch
Europe Security Overview
- Political Risk Analysis: The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- Europe In A Global Context
- Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Bulgaria's Security Risk Ratings
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
- External Security Situation
- Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations
Armed Forces And Government Expenditure
- Armed Forces
- Modernisation Programme
- International Deployment
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Key Players In Bulgaria's Defence Sector, 2008
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
- Table: Bulgaria's Armed Forces, 2000-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Bulgaria's Available Manpower for Military Services (2008-2015)
- Government Expenditure
- Table: Bulgaria's Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
- Table: Bulgaria's Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (US$mn), 2008-2015
- Defence Trade
- Table: Bulgaria's Defence Imports, 2008-2015 (US$mn)
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity, 2007-2015
Company Profiles
- Arcus
- Arsenal
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1584...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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