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Melbourne has a strong position to build on in the last months of FY11. The port has posted good results for the first half of the financial year, with revenue tonnes, container volumes and new motor vehicle trade demonstrating strong year-on-year (y-o-y) increases. Over the mid term we project further growth at the port of Melbourne. Sydney will continue its tonnage recovery, as it returned to positive growth in FY10. Headline Industry Data * FY11 port of Melbourne tonnage throughput forecast to grow 10%, over the mid-term we project a 24% increase. * FY11 port of Melbourne container throughput forecast to grow 12%, over the mid-term we project a 30% increase. * 2011 total trade growth forecast at 5.97%. ------------------------------------------------------------ Full Report Details at - http://www.fastmr.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------ Key Industry Trends 2010 Recovery For Melbourne, But Growth To Slow in 2011: 2010 was a positive year for the port of Melbourne, with growth being driven by container throughput and motor vehicle volumes. Melbourne is Australia's largest container port, so a bellwether not only for Australia's port sector, but also for the Australian consumer picture. Private consumption - which makes up 55.6% of the country's economy - played a vital role in driving growth in 2010. We have factored up both our tonnage and container forecasts for FY11, and project increases in both total and box throughput for the financial year. BMI notes, however, that a slowdown in throughput growth is projected in 2011. National Ports Strategy To Tackle Australia's Congestion Woes: In a bid to tackle rising congestion at the nation's ports, the Australian government has launched its first National Ports Strategy, which will aim to map out the next 20 years of Australian shipping. BMI notes that given recent problems at Australian ports - in particular at the DP World-operated Port Botany at the port of Sydney - this is a much-needed move, and should provide a comprehensive framework for ensuring congestion-free ports in the years to come. Rio Tinto To Triple Coal Exports Through Newcastle: Rio Tinto-managed Port Waratah Coal Services Limited (PWCS), which operates two coal terminals, Carrington and Kooragang, at the Port of Newcastle in New South Wales, announced in February plans to almost triple its coal-loading capacity at the port and to build T4, the port's fourth coal terminal. At full capacity Newcastle's four coal terminals would be capable of shipping more than 300mn tonnes of coal per annum. New Iron Ore Ports in Western Australia: Rio Tinto has awarded the engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCM) contract for expansion of the Cape Lambert port facility in Western Australia to Sinclair Knight Mertz (SKM). The new greenfield iron-ore port facility located alongside the existing Cape Lambert port, will offer an initial annual shipping capacity of 53mn tonnes. The port's design also permits additional shipping capacity of 50mn tonnes per annum. Another iron port is going to be built at Anketell Point, just 15km north of Cape Lambert. The lead developer for the project is Fortescue Metals Group and the annual capacity of the first stage is 40mn tonnes. Capacity might potentially increase to 350mn tonnes at a total cost of the project at AUD25bn. Risks To Outlook The strong base for growth at the country's ports stems from BMI's positive outlook for the Australian economy. Container throughput will be driven by the country's consumers, a section of the country's economy that is strengthening. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 2.4% in 2011. An upside risk to our forecasts comes as Australian exports to China are expected to be stronger on the back of firm Chinese growth. There is however a downside risk to our forecasts, created by the recent tightening in borrowing costs and weakening consumer confidence together with the flooding in parts of Queensland and Victoria in January, followed by Cyclone Yasi in the north in February, which lead to our Country Risk team's prediction of the slowdown in economic growth in 2011 and 2012.About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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