“Country Forecast Azerbaijan May 2011 Updater” added to ReportBuyer.com

May 11, 2011 - PRLog -- ReportBuyer.com has added a new report http://www.reportbuyer.com/go/EIU03743

Overview

The second term in office of the president, Ilham Aliyev, will be more testing than his first. Small protests against the government have been held on an ad hoc basis since the start of 2011 by religious and political groups. The risk of social unrest continuing throughout 2011-15 is elevated, particularly as slower economic growth may lead to an increase in popular dissatisfaction with government policies. Despite higher global oil prices than in 2009, modest increases in oil production resulted in a sharp slowdown in GDP growth in 2010, and this trend will continue in 2011. Growth will pick up to an average of 4.5% in 2012-15. Annual average inflation will remain in single digits in the forecast period, although a pick-up in consumer demand will ensure that inflationary pressures remain. After staying stable against the US dollar in 2010-11, a return of investor risk appetite and higher foreign capital inflows will put the manat on a modest appreciating trend from 2012. The current account will stay in surplus in 2011-15, driven by the substantial trade surplus.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook
The plan of the de facto government in Nagorny Karabakh to open an airport near the region's capital, Stepanakert (Khankendi), has angered the Azerbaijani authorities. Tensions will remain elevated between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the coming months.

Economic policy outlook
The state budget recorded a surplus of Manat681m (US$850m) in January-March 2011. The government stated that it may revise its state budget targets in May, owing to higher than expected oil prices. Nonetheless, the government's spending plans will remain heavily reliant on transfers from the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ, the overseas windfall fund).

Economic forecast
The current-account surplus rose to US$15bn in 2010. A sharp rise in export revenue, owing to higher global commodity prices, was the main factor driving the increase. The surplus is forecast to rise to US$14.9bn in 2011.

Country Forecast Azerbaijan May 2011 Updater:  published is available at:
http://www.reportbuyer.com/countries/middle_east/azerbaij...

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