Nigeria Power Report Q2 2011: New research report available at Fast Market Research

May 10, 2011 - PRLog -- In this new report, we forecast that Nigeria will account for 2.14% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2015, with the country struggling to narrow the supply/demand gap. BMI's MEA power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,222 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation, to 1,508TWh by 2015, representing a rise of 18.5% between 2011 and the end of the period.

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Full Report Details at
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MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI to have been 1,140TWh, accounting for 93.3% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 1,370TWh, implying 16.1% growth in 2011-2015 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 90.8% - thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Nigeria's thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 15.5TWh, or 1.36% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 1.77% of regional thermal generation.

Direct burning of wood and waste materials will have been the dominant energy source for Nigeria in 2010, accounting for an estimated 77.0% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 12.3% and oil with a 9.5% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,114mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 15.9% growth over the period since 2011. Nigeria's estimated 2010 market share of 11.35% is set to rise to 12.03% by 2015.

Nigeria now shares sixth place with Kenya in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings. Its position should prove secure over the medium term, with Iran, six points below, posing little threat. Import dependency is average for the region, while the proportion of renewables is relatively high. However, the power sector is not particularly competitive, with limited progress towards privatisation.

BMI forecasts that Nigeria's real GDP growth will average 7.73% a year between 2011 and 2015, with 2011 growth assumed to be 7.90%. The population is expected to expand from 158.3mn to 178.7mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 115% and 23% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 20.4TWh in 2010 to 29.7TWh by 2015, providing little improvement in market coverage on the basis of 7.5% average annual growth (2011-2015) in electricity generation. Transmission losses and power industry usage of around 2.8TWh mean that the market is likely to remain tight for several years.

Between 2011 and 2020 we forecast a 86.4% increase in Nigerian electricity generation, near the top of the MEA range. This equates to 40.2% in 2015-2020, up from 32.9% in 2011-2015. PED growth in 2015- 2020 is set be 27.6%, up from 21.6% for 2011-2015 and representing 55.1% for the entire forecast period. Hydro-power use is forecast to increase by 29% between 2011 and 2020, while thermal power generation is expected to rise 110% during the period, fuelled largely by natural gas. Details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.

Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Nigeria Power Business Environment SWOT
- Nigeria Political SWOT
- Nigeria Economic SWOT
- Nigeria Economic SWOT
- Nigeria Business Environment SWOT
Industry Overview
- Global
- Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015
- Middle East And Africa Region
- Table: Middle East And Africa Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Market Overview
- Primary Energy Demand
- Power Generation
- Power Consumption
- Regulation And Competition
- Pricing
- Power Transmission
Business Environment
- Middle East and Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Regional Power Business Environment Ratings
- Nigeria's Power Rating
- Rewards
- Risks
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Nigeria's Power Outlook
- Generation
- Gas-Fired
- Oil-Fired
- Coal-Fired
- Nuclear Energy
- Hydro-Electric
- Renewable Energy
- Power Costs
- Transmission
- Table: Nigeria's Power Sector, 2008-2015
- Table: Nigeria's Thermal Power Sector, 2008-2015 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Nigeria's Non-Thermal Power, 2008-2015
- Table: Nigeria's Power Costs, 2008-2015 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
- Assumptions And Methodology
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Power Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Nigeria - Economic Activity 2006-2015
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Global Snapshot
- Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020
- Regional Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1527...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.