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Follow on Google News | France Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011: New research report available at Fast Market ResearchNew Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "France Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011"
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 416.5 billion cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 457.1bcm targeted for 2015, representing 9.7% growth. Production of an estimated 255.7bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 254.0bcm in 2015, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 160.8bcm to some 203.1bcm by the end of the period. The French share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 10.34%, while it has no appreciable share of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 9.75%. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. French real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.5% in 2010. We are forecasting 1.8% average annual growth in 2011-2015. Oil consumption is set to stagnate in spite of increased economic activity, with demand of an estimated 1.85mn b/d in 2010 expected to rally to no more than 1.92mn b/d by 2015. Crude oil imports are expected to have reached 1.92mn b/d by 2015, with domestic crude oil production falling from an estimated 18,000b/d to just 9,000b/d over the period. Gas demand is expected to rise more quickly than for oil, with new sources of supply being lined up by GDF Suez, which has signed import agreements with Egypt, Russia, Norway, Algeria and the Netherlands. Gas consumption is likely to have reached 44.6bcm by 2015. Production is negligible, so imports could rise to 42.6bcm. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in French oil and gas liquids consumption of 3.35%, with estimated 2010 demand of 1.85mn b/d rising slowly to a peak of 1.93mn b/d in 2013/14. By 2020, we are forecasting French consumption of 1.91mn b/d. Production is set to fall from around 18,000b/d to just 5,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 43.1bcm to a peak of 45.0bcm in 2017, based on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. According to BMI's country risk team, France's long-term political risk score is 86.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 87.8 and the global average of 62.9. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.9, just below the Developed Markets average of 67.2 and above the global average of 52.9. France has a fully privatised and competitive oil and gas industry. State holdings have been reduced greatly in electricity and gas suppliers Electricite de France (EDF) and GDF Suez. The upstream and downstream oil segments are privatised and deregulated, with considerable IOC involvement in refining and distribution, even though former state company Total has the greatest market share. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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