New market study, "Egypt Retail Report Q2 2011", has been published

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April 30, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI's Q211 Egypt Retail Report forecasts that the country's retail sales will grow from an expected EGP164.52bn (US$30.30bn) in 2011 to EGP262.26bn (US$48.30bn) by 2015, with long-term political stability the only question mark. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Egypt's retail sales are an extremely large and youthful population, the emergence of a more affluent middle class, a vibrant tourism industry and the growing acceptance of modern retail concepts.

Egypt's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$242.87bn in 2011, with growth of 3.2% forecast for the year. Average annual GDP growth of 4.3% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population increasing from 86.0mn in 2011 to an estimated 91.7mn by the end of the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by 67.3%, reaching US$4,810.

Egypt's substantial population makes it the largest market in the Arab world, with the population of the Cairo area alone over 15mn people in 2008. Alexandria is also a large city, with a population of more than 4mn.

In 2005, 63.3% of the Egyptian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.3% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. In 2010, an estimated 65.1% of the population was active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is estimated to be 37.4%.

Increasing urbanisation is also contributing to growth in the retail sector. In 2005, 42.3% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this was estimated at 43.2% by 2010.

The country's retail market also benefits from high tourist spending, with official data showing that foreign tourist arrivals totalled 12.7mn in 2010, reversing the 2009 downturn and bringing in US$10.2bn in revenue. However, the anti-government protests that led to the downfall of President Hosni Mubarak resulted in an estimated 210,000 tourists leaving Egypt at the end of January 2011, cutting revenues by US$178mn in one week. Cancelled holiday bookings for February deprived the country of another US$825mn in earnings.

If the political situation stabilises, we believe that Egypt still has the potential to attract annual visitor numbers of nearly 18mn by the end of the forecast period.

Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include over-thecounter (OTC) pharmaceuticals with sales expected to grow by nearly 52%, from an expected US$0.50bn in 2011 to US$0.76bn by 2015.

Vehicle sales are forecast to grow by more than 200%, from a predicted 330,309 units in 2011 to 999,746 units by 2015. Car ownership in Egypt is estimated at around 23 cars per 1,000 people, compared with 35 per 1,000 in Iran and more than 100 per 1,000 in Saudi Arabia, which means that the country has considerable scope for growth.

With the Egyptian consumer electronics market one of the largest in the Middle East, sales are forecast to increase from an expected US$3.4bn in 2011 to US$5.1bn, a rise of more than 50%. Demand will be driven by an expanding population, 50% of which is estimated to be under 25.

Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2011 are predicted to amount to US$204.60bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI's macroeconomic database is forecast at US$722.41bn. In 2011, BMI predicts that South Africa and Israel will together account for an estimated 56.3% of regional retail sales, with Egypt accounting for a further 14.8%; by 2015, the combined share of South Africa, Israel and Egypt is expected to reach 72.3%. For Egypt, its estimated 2011 market share of 14.8% is expected to increase to 16.6% by 2015.

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Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Egypt Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Egypt Political SWOT
- Egypt Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Egypt's Retail Sales, 2008-2015
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2011f
- Consumer Outlook
- Consumer Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Egypt Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2008-2015
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2008-2015
- Current Trends
Business Environment Outlook
- Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings
- Egypt's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Egypt Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2006-2015
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Egypt Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Egypt Distributors For Leading Brands
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Demand
- Industry Developments
- Egypt Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Production and Sales
- Table: Egypt Automotives Historical Data And Forecasts
- Table: Egypt Automotives Historical Data And Forecasts
- Trade
- Table: Egypt Automotives Historical Data And Forecasts
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2010
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

About Fast Market Research

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For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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