Market Report, "Spain Metals Report Q2 2011", published

New Materials market report from Business Monitor International: "Spain Metals Report Q2 2011"
 
April 30, 2011 - PRLog -- While the Spanish steel industry performed slightly better than expected in 2010, output is still well down on pre-crisis levels and will struggle to climb back to normality, with a poor domestic environment and sluggish export growth.

In 2010, Spanish crude steel production grew 21.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 16.30mn tonnes, which was better than BMI's estimates. H2 output was 16.6% down on H1, with output down partly due to the effects of the sovereign debt crisis. Much of the growth in 2010 was related to inventory rebuilding with output still down 14% over pre-crisis levels. BMI estimates that hot-rolled output was up 17.5% to 15.08mn tonnes - nearly 21% down on pre-crisis levels. Output was depressed by poor demand for long steel products amid the continuing slump in construction.

The key elements vital for private consumption to grow - including higher incomes, lower taxes, greater wealth and available consumer credit - will all be lacking in Spain over the medium term, and this will thrust Spanish metals industries into increased export dependency. The country remains burdened by low levels of consumer confidence, contracting credit and rising inflation, all of which are combining to dampen domestic demand. Firms have failed to see a significant rebound in industrial activity, with industrial production growth - a bellwether for the metals industry - proving flat in recent months. With industrial production remaining well below 2007 levels, and with low capacity utilisation rates, overall demand for metal products will be capped for the foreseeable future.

Fiscal austerity measures in much of the eurozone will be the biggest risk factor to the Spanish steel industry over 2011. Growth in output was spurred by restocking, bolstered by the end of idling at Spanish plants. We have also lowered our 2011 growth forecast to 0.7%, from 0.9% previously, on account of the considerable fiscal consolidation scheduled for this year. Ultimately, we foresee limited scope for growth within any component of GDP by expenditure this year apart from net exports. Over the longer run we believe economic growth in Spain will prove moribund.

We do not see a rapid return to pre-recession levels of output. Indeed, by 2015 crude steel output will still be nearly 1mn tonnes lower than 2008, at 18.17mn tonnes, as Spanish producers look set to struggle in a highly competitive external market alongside a lengthy downturn in the domestic market. Hot rolled output will face a similar overall decline, with 2015 output 3.4% below 2008 levels at 17.52mn tonnes, prompting producers to consider the possibility of taking capacity offline permanently. Construction materials such as rebar will be affected in particular, with production more than 13% below pre-recession levels as the industry adjusts from years of residential housing boom.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/152522_spain_metals_report_q2_...


Report Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Spain Political SWOT
- Spain Economic SWOT
Global Market Overview
- Steel To Average US$580/Tonne In 2011
- Table: BMI's Steel Forecasts
- Table: Steel Prices (US$m/t)
Commodities Forecast
- Commodity Strategy - Metals Update
- Aluminium
- Copper
- Lead
- Nickel
- Tin
- Zinc
- Gold
Regional Overview
Forecast Scenario
- Table: Spain's Metals Industry ('000 tonnes unless stated), 2008-2015
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Spain - Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
- Sidenor
- Alcoa
- Acerinox
- Compania Espanola de Laminacion SA (CELSA)
- ArcelorMittal
Global Assumptions Q2 2011
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
- Table: Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
- Table: Selected Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 (average)
- Developed States
- Table: Developed States' GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
- Emerging Markets
- Table: Emerging Market's GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
- Consensus Forecasts
- Table: Consensus Forecasts, 2011 And 2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks
Country Snapshot: Spain Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:Steel, Spanish, Pre-crisis, Metals, Metal, Industrial, Poor, Education, Construction, Struggle
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