April 28, 2011 -
PRLog -- The latest Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.51% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 1.22% of supply. Latin American regional use averaged an estimated 7.88mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.07mn b/d in 2011 and reach 8.69mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.03mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.66mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 2.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rebound to 2.97mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 209bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 264bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 273bcm in 2015, and implies more than 8bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Trinidad & Tobago (T&T)
contributed an estimated 10.38% to 2010 regional gas consumption, while producing around 19%. By 2015, it is expected to consume 10.11% of the region's gas, contributing 18.88% to supply. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. T&
amp;T's real GDP in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have risen by 2.4%, with an average annual increase of 3.4% expected in 2010-2015. The emphasis of several major international oil company (IOC) partners in the state in the hydrocarbons segment is on gas for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export, with limited potential for oil production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 142,000b/d by 2015, with the country expected to pump 145,000b/d in 2011. Domestic consumption is forecast to increase by around 4-5% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 44,000b/d by then. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 42bcm in 2010 to 52bcm over the period, with net exports growing from an estimated 20bcm to 25bcm by 2015, largely in the form of LNG. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decline in T&T's oil and gas liquids production of 11.5%, with liquids volumes falling steadily from an estimated 147,000b/d to 131,000b/d, largely in the form of gas liquids associated with gas field developments. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth averaging 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 56,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise, from an estimated 42bcm in 2010 to a possible 55bcm in 2020. With demand growth of 57.3%, this implies export potential rising from an estimated 20bcm to a peak of 25bcm in 2015, before easing to 21bcm by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix. T&
amp;T now shares fifth place with Venezuela in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings, which combine upstream and downstream scores. It ranks fifth, above Argentina, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, thanks largely to its natural gas resource base and rising output. It stands just one point clear of Argentina, but its combination of attractive licensing terms, competitive landscape and moderate country risk should be sufficient to keep it safe from hostile advances over the medium term. T&T shares fifth place with Mexico in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its modest level of oil consumption, refining capacity expansion plans and relatively high retail site intensity. Chile, six points below, should pose no threat over the near term.
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