April 28, 2011 -
PRLog -- The value of the US pharmaceutical market is unrivalled globally. Having been worth some US$319bn at consumer prices in 2009, we expect modest annual growth in 2010, primarily as the effects of price rises wear off and as generic competition erodes sales values. In the 2009-2014 period, we forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.55% for the overall market, dragged down by the 1.52% CAGR decrease in the value of the patented segment, which currently represents over 70% of the total market in value terms. In the meantime, performance of the over-the-counter (OTC) medicines will remain shaped by the economic slowdown, which has led us to revise downwards our 2010 and 2011 real GDP forecasts, to 2.6% and 1.6%, respectively. This will also mean lower funds available for the expansion of federal insurance programme, as envisaged. Additionally, the dollar-euro chart has been shaping up for a potentially significant bounce in favour of the US dollar, which may discourage pharmaceutical exports. Nevertheless, the sheer size of the US pharmaceutical market will ensure that it remains placed first - both regionally and globally - in BMI's Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Rating (BER) updates for time to come. However, a worrying trend has emerged. According to a recent study by Wolters Kluwer, an increasing number of patients are leaving their prescriptions unfilled, as they are unable to meet the costs of medicines or insurance co-payments. Commercial health plan patients abandoned new prescriptions at the pharmacy at a rate of 6.3% in 2009, up 24% over 2008, with the rate of abandonment of branded medicine prescriptions also significantly higher than in the overall prescription market. Similarly, an August 2010 telephone survey of more than 2,000 US citizens, conducted by Harris Interactive on behalf of Merck & Co, found that more than a third of those who are uninsured and unemployed either decided not buy or refill the medicines they were prescribed, cut their dosage in half or took expired medicine as a way of saving money. According to recently published research by the US Committee on Energy and Commerce, healthcare insurance coverage denials for US citizens with pre-existing health conditions increased by almost 50% from 2007 to 2009, while applications for enrolment increased by only 16%. On a positive note, however, the Affordable Care Act prohibits health insurers from refusing coverage based on the patient's medical history, which should provide support for the continuing development of both pharmaceutical and healthcare industry revenues. Insurers are also to be prohibited from charging higher premiums or exclude coverage for medicines or treatments for pre-existing conditions. For children, this provision becomes effective for policies issued on or after September 23 2010, although the new legislation will only take effect on January 1 2014 for all other groups.
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