"Argentina Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

New Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
 
April 23, 2011 - PRLog -- The latest Argentina Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.01% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 5.48% of supply. Latin American regional use averaged an estimated 7.88mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.07mn b/d in 2011 and reach 8.69mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production in 2010 averaged an estimated 10.03mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.66mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.46mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 2.15mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rebound to 2.97mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 209bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 264bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 273bcm in 2015, and implies more than 8bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Argentina's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 21.29%, while its share of production is put at 19.45%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.46%, with the country accounting for 18.33% of supply.

The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.

We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.

Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.

Argentina's real GDP rose by an estimated 8.0% in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 4.7% forecast in 2010-2015. State entity Enarsa acts as partner to international oil companies (IOCs) in supporting output growth efforts, operating alongside regional heavyweight Repsol YPF and others. We are assuming oil production peaking at no more than 665,000b/d in 2013, with the country believed to have pumped 668,000b/d in 2010. Beyond the 2009 dip, consumption is forecast to increase by around 1.5% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 522,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The crude oil export capability would therefore be around 116,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 43bcm in 2010 to a high of 46bcm during the period, resulting in the need for almost 10bcm of net imports by 2015, if demand grows by 15.6%.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in Argentine oil production of 13.6%, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 665,000b/d, before falling steadily to 577,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 14.3%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 549,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 43bcm in 2010 to 50bcm in 2015, before slipping back to 46bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 34.0%, this provides a need for net imports to rise to almost 14bcm by 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report.

Argentina now takes fourth place, above Venezuela and Trinidad, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) rating, which combines upstream and downstream scores. This reflects the country's sixth place in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings, behind Trinidad and Tobago (T&T). Its gas resources, largely privatised oil sector, licensing regime and competitive landscape work in the country's favour, but are undermined by an absence of growth potential, asset maturity and unappealing risk environment. Medium-term scope exists for Argentina to overtake Trinidad, and it should be safe from Ecuador some six points below. Argentina is well up the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its privatised refining and marketing segment, substantial capacity and competitive environment, offset by only moderate growth potential and a relatively high level of retail site intensity. It holds third place, behind Colombia, in the regional rankings.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/149581_argentina_oil_gas_repor...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

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For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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