"Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
 
April 23, 2011 - PRLog -- The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.58% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2015, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 6.09mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.93mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001 and in 2010 averaged an estimated 13.78mn b/d. It is set to rise to 15.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 7.69mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 8.15mn b/d by 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the most important exporter.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 736.3bcm targeted for 2015, representing 15.7% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 217.9bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria's share of gas consumption in 2010 was an estimated 0.47%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.67%.

The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.

We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February.

Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April.

Bulgarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 0.4% in 2010. We are forecasting average annual growth of 3.3% in 2011-2015. Oil demand beyond the weakness of 2009/10 is forecast to rise by up to 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 109,000b/d by 2015. Imports can be expected to grow in line with consumption, as exploration efforts in the largely privatised hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.4bcm by 2015, demand is heading for 5.0bcm, requiring imports of 3.6bcm.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 21.3%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 96,000b/d in 2010 to 121,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Gas production is expected to rise from the estimated 2010 level of 0.2bcm to a peak of 1.5bcm by 2014, before slipping to 1.0bcm by 2020. Given forecast demand growth of 111%, import dependency increases from the estimated 2010 level of 2.8bcm to 5.3bcm at the end of the period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Bulgaria now shares eighth place with Czech Republic and Hungary in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds sixth place, above Romania, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, limited production potential and constrained competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset by reasonable country risk factors. There is little scope for further progress up the league table during the next few quarters. Bulgaria now shares 12th place with Uzbekistan in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect much near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region's lowest, and gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents another weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are among the best in the CEE region.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/149587_bulgaria_oil_gas_report...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

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For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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