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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "Chile Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011", publishedFast Market Research recommends "Chile Oil & Gas Report Q2 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 209bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 264bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 273bcm in 2015, and implies more than 8bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Chile's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 was 1.72%, while it has around 0.81% of production. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.84%, with Chile making a contribution of just 0.48% to production. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast from US$80 to US$90/bbl for 2011 and from US$85 to US$95/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$94/bbl in 2011 and US$99/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place for the time being while we wait to see what path events in the MENA region take. We have also retained our existing supply and demand forecasts until the scheduled quarterly revision at the start of April. BMI has assumed a rise of 5.2% in Chile's 2010 real GDP, with an average annual increase of 4.2% forecast through to 2015. State oil and gas company Empresa Nacional del Petroleo (ENAP) is responsible for all domestic oil and gas production, with volumes in decline. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 5,700b/d by 2015, with the country expected to pump an average of 8,660b/d in 2011. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by up to 2% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 358,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be around 352,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is forecast to decrease from an estimated 1.8bcm peak in 2010 to 1.3bcm in 2015, with net imports of 6.2bcm required by 2015. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Chilean oil consumption of 13.43%, with demand rising steadily from an estimated 335,000b/d to 380,000b/d. The annual growth rate is expected to slow to 1% towards the end of the period. Gas production is expected to have peaked at around 1.8bcm in 2010, before declining steadily to 1.0bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 170% to 9.7bcm, the import requirement will also rise during the 10-year period, from an estimated 1.8bcm to 8.7bcm. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Chile holds last place in BMI's composite Business Environment ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. It is also ranked last, alongside Mexico, in BMI's updated upstream BERs, despite an investor-friendly country risk profile. There is little likelihood of a move much further up the ratings, but Chile may be able to overtake Mexico during the next few quarters. Chile fares a little better in BMI's downstream BERs, taking seventh place, above Ecuador, reflecting its weak oil demand growth outlook, regulatory environment and attractive country risk rating. It should be able to keep Ecuador at bay during coming quarters. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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