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Follow on Google News | New Market Study Published: Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q2 2011Fast Market Research recommends "Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q2 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available
The merger of VimpelCom and Kyivstar was delayed until October 2010 and, even then, has taken several months to conclude. Data for both companies for Q310 were not published separately; instead amalgamated results were available from VimpelCom. However, as there has not yet been a clear statement of intentions from VimpelCom about how it intends to manage the Beeline and Kyivstar brands we continued to treat them separately in this report. We may therefore need to revisit our mobile forecasts again in succeeding quarters. Turkcell-owned Astelit also recorded three quarters of negative growth as it rid itself of unprofitable inactive subscribers. It lost 1.9mn subscribers in Q310, offsetting the return to positive growth reported by the other operators on the market. We expect further reductions at Astelit in Q410, so we estimate an overall decline of 0.4% for 2010. Although we believe the market could return to growth in future, we continue to expect growth to be minimal, verging on flat. Our revised long-term forecast envisages a mobile subscriber base of 56.04mn and a penetration rate of 126% at the end of 2015. We expect 3G licenses to be auctioned in 2011, which will allow for an increase in the % of 3G subscribers from the entire mobile market once Ukrtelecom's 3G monopoly ends. We amended slightly our existing broadband figures for 2008 and 2009 and believe the market grew by 42.5% in 2009, resulting in a total of 2.28mn subscribers, a little lower than we had previously reported. Data for the first half of 2010 showed equally strong growth rates, aided by increased xDSL penetration and more competitive pricing. Therefore, we believe the market grew to serve 3.209mn subscribers by the end of 2010. Taking into account the likelihood that mobile broadband will become more popular and the increasing investment of Kyivstar in FTTB, we forecast a broadband subscriber base of 5.486mn at the end of 2015 with a penetration rate in excess of 12%. There is also the potential to see the take-off of the IPTV market in Ukraine in 2011-12, with the regulator set to issue licences and considerable interest from operators. Our forecasts for the country's fixed-line market have not altered. These are based on the assumption that the sector shrank by 1.1% in 2009 and this is the start of a downward trend after years of slow but steady growth. The negative growth in 2009 appears to have resulted from several factors, including the impact of economic recession, the growth of fixed-to-mobile substitution and the increasing popularity of voice over internet protocol (VoIP) services. Fixed-line incumbent operator Ukrtelecom bore the brunt of fixed-line losses in 2009 and will likely continue doing so. Over the next five years we expect a 1% annual average rate of decline, reaching 12.11mn lines by 2015. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Partial Table of Contents: SWOT Analysis - Ukraine Mobile Industry SWOT - Ukraine Fixed-Line/Internet Industry SWOT - Ukraine Political SWOT - Ukraine Economic SWOT - Ukraine Business Environment SWOT Business Environment - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Rankings - Ukraine Industry Forecast Scenario - Mobile - Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts - Fixed Line - Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts - Internet - Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts Market Data Analysis - Mobile - Table: No. Of Net Additions ('000) - Table: Ukrainian Mobile Market, Q310 - Table: Mobile Contract Wins - Mobile Content - Regional Outlook - Country Outlook - Value-Added Services Timeline - Table: Selected VAS Services - Mobile Operator Data - Table: Ukraine Mobile Market - Table: Kyivstar - Table: MTS - Table: VimpelCom - Table: Astelit - Fixed Line - Table: Ukrtelecom Revenues From Sale Of Telecommunications Services (UAH mn) - Broadband - Table: Ukrainian Fixed Broadband Operators' Subscriber Growth ('000) - Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments - Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2010 Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments - Legislation And Market Liberalisation - Regulatory Developments Competitive Landscape - Market Structure - Key Players - Table: Key Players - Ukraine Telecoms Market - Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2005-2009 Company Monitor - Huawei - Table: Huawei Technologies: - Much Too Much, Much Too Young? - Can There Be Smoke Without Fire? - Operator Profiles - Ukrtelecom - Kyivstar - MTS Ukraine - Astelit Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview - Fixed Line - Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview - Broadband - Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview - Mobile - Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data - Section 1: Population - Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 - Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 - Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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