New Market Study Published: South Africa Commercial Banking Report Q2 2011

March 29, 2011 - PRLog -- Recovery Gaining Pace  The South African banking sector remains in recovery mode, with the annual growth of loans and  deposits continuing to edge higher. We believe that decent growth will take place over the medium term,  with assets forecast to increase by 10.0% y-o-y in 2011 and 12.0% in 2012.  The South African banking sector is cementing its recovery. The latest data from the South African  Reserve Bank show that the annual growth of loans and deposits notched upward in Q310. Importantly,  total assets made a move into positive territory in August 2010, in terms of annual growth, and by  September 2010, the year-on-year (y-o-y) increase stood at 4.6%. Meanwhile, loans expanded by 3.6% yo-  y to ZAR2,342bn in September, reflecting banks' increasing confidence in lending to the real economy.  This ties in with encouraging signals from the latest credit data: private sector credit growth rose to 5.6%  y-o-y in December 2010, from 4.6% in November - albeit propelled by increased spending during the  holiday season. Turning to deposits, these grew at a more rapid clip, increasing by 6.5% y-o-y in  December, up from 6.1% in November.      Overall, the latest data mirror the macroeconomic recovery taking place in the South African economy:  real GDP growth came in at 2.6% quarter on quarter (q-o-q) on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis (SAA) in Q310. Although the growth rate was marginally lower than the 2.8% q-o-q SAA seen in Q210,  the breakdown of GDP by expenditure reveals that consumer spending continues to show signs of life,  boosted by the low interest rate environment, ongoing wage increases and rising asset prices.  One trend worth highlighting is the impending growth of Islamic banking. At present, there is only one  shari'a-compliant financial institution, al-Baraka Bank, which is part-owned by Saudi Arabia-based  Dallah al-Baraka Group. However, there are plans afoot to change the taxes applied, meaning that  Islamic finance will become more attractive to consumers. At present, there are no tax exemptions on  Islamic products, but it is anticipated that the Finance Ministry will soon announce a change of policy.  Specifically, the Treasury will reportedly deem profit made from murabaha (short-term trade  transactions), mudaraba (investment in commercial enterprises) and diminishing musharaka deals (profit  and loss sharing between lender and borrower) as interest, exempting proceeds below ZAR22,300  annually for investors under 65 years of age from being taxed. While the Islamic finance industry is  relatively small at present, this could presage a flourishing of activity.    Returning to the broader banking sector, we anticipate that the recovery will continue, albeit at a pace  slower than the growth recorded prior to the global financial crisis. We are forecasting asset growth of  10.0% y-o-y in 2011 and 12.0% in 2012; client loan growth of 8.5% in 2011 and 10.0% in 2012; and  client deposit growth of 12.0% in 2011 and 15.0% in 2012. These rates are in line with our outlook on the  economy: we are forecasting sub-trend real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2011 and 4.0% in 2012 - although the  consumer sector is expected to continue its rebound, rising imports and potentially weak investment are  likely to keep a lid on headline growth.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/128823_south_africa_commercial...


Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (ZARbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At September 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2011-2015 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011
- Table: Projected Levels (ZARbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- South Africa Commercial Banking SWOT
- South Africa Political SWOT
- South Africa Economic SWOT
- South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Middle East And Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
- Regional Outlooks
- Mergers And Acquisitions Outlook For Banks
Africa Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2009
- Table: Middle East And Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010 (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010e (US$)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2010-2011
South Africa Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: South Africa Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In South Africa's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Registered Banks
- Table: Registered Mutual Banks
- Table: Registered Local Branches Of Foreign Banks
- Table: Banks In Final Liquidation
Company Profiles
- Standard Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Standard Bank, 2004-2008 (ZARmn)
- Absa Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Absa, 2004-2008 (ZARmn)
- FirstRand
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Nedbank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn,unless stated)
-

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1288...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

# # #

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.