"Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q2 2011" now available at Fast Market Research

March 22, 2011 - PRLog -- In our latest regional Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for the Emerging Europe region, Bulgaria ranks 12th, out of the 20 countries surveyed. However, the country's overall rewards score continues to fall below the regional average, dragged down by both per-capita and overall market size, which will hinder Bulgaria's progress up the regional matrix. On the risks side, Bulgaria's score is on a par with the regional average, although corruption and cumbersome bureaucracy continue to be viewed as outstanding issues detrimental to the country's attractiveness to investors.

Over a five-year period to 2015, BMI forecasts the market will expand at a local currency compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.74%, rising in value from BGN1.87bn (US$1.32bn) calculated for 2010 to BGN2.59bn (US$1.66bn). While the expansion of the reimbursement list benefited the performance of patented drugs in 2010, we believe sales of generic drugs will outpace patented pharmaceuticals, as budgetary pressures result in further cost-containment initiatives. In fact, the authorities are already considering using China and India as reference countries for reimbursement purposes, which poses downside risks to our overall forecasts. Such developments may also result in removal of commercially unviable products from the market.

Nevertheless, BMI remains sceptical that the full extent of this price erosion mechanism could be realised. As patients have the option to pay the difference between the reference product and a more expensive original product, the impact on the drug industry will be lessened, wider economic considerations permitting. Still, BMI notes the actions of the Bulgarian Ministry of Health align with our view that the introduction of government price erosion mechanisms will accelerate across Europe, driven by need for fiscal austerity and supported by the actions of numerous governments over the past year.

We now expect end-2011 inflation for Bulgaria to reach 5.8% (up from the original forecast of 3.0%), reflecting what we believe are increasing external price pressures. While we remain sanguine in our outlook for the overall Bulgarian economy, which we forecast to expand by 2.6% in real terms in 2011, we caution that rising inflation may potentially undermine Bulgaria's still-weak recovery as consumer purchasing power is eroded. This weakness could also translate into the weaker-than-expected performance of the pharmaceutical market, especially as much of drug spending is sourced out of pocket.

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Partial Table of Contents:

SWOT Analysis
- Bulgaria Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT
- Bulgaria Political SWOT
- Bulgaria Economic SWOT
- Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Q211
- Rewards
- Risks
Bulgaria - Market Summary
- Regulatory Regime
- Intellectual Property Environment
- Corruption and Counterfeit Drugs
- Pricing Regime
- Table: Wholesale Mark-Ups
- Table: Retail Mark-Ups
- Recent Pricing Regime Developments
- Reimbursement Regime
- Recent Reimbursement Regime Developments
Industry Developments
- Epidemiology
- Table: Main Causes Of Death In Bulgaria (per 100,000 population
- Table: Disease Burden In CEE
- Non-Communicable Diseases
- Communicable Diseases
- Healthcare Sector
- Healthcare Financing
- National Healthcare Plan
- Healthcare Insurance
- Hospital Privatisation Programme
- Introduction Of Patient E-Cards
- Research And Development
- Clinical Trials
- Medical Devices
- Table: Classification Of Medical Devices In The EU
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market    Forecast
- Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2007-2015
- Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
- Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
- Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2007-2015
- Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity, 2006-2015
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
- Patented Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2007-2015
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2007-2015
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2007-2015
- Medical Device Market Forecast
- Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2007-2015
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
- Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2007-2015
- Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Competitive Landscape
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Table: Leading Pharmaceutical Companies By Sales
- Local Pharmaceutical Sector
- Foreign Pharmaceutical Sector
- Recent Foreign Company Activities
- Wholesale Sector
- Table: Pharmaceutical Wholesale and Retail Market in Bulgaria
- Retail Sector
Company Monitor
- Local Companies
- Sopharma
- Biovet
- Actavis Bulgaria (formerly Balkanpharma)
- Foreign Companies
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Novartis
- Sanofi-Aventis
- Pfizer
- Merck & Co
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1271...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.