"Poland Retail Report Q2 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

March 19, 2011 - PRLog -- The Q211 BMI Poland Retail report forecasts that the country's total retail sales will increase by more than 26% in local currency terms between 2011 and 2015, growing from a predicted PLN420.23bn (US$159.42bn) to PLN530.60bn (US$201.29bn). Rising disposable incomes, consumers seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains, and increased car ownership are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership since 2004 and increasing amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast average annual retail sales growth of 6.3%.

Poland's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$542.49bn in 2011, up from US$473.82bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.2% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2015. Although the population is expected to decrease slightly, from 38.1mn in 2011 to 38.0mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by more than 45% by 2015, reaching US$20,690.

With 38mn people, Poland is the biggest market among the new EU countries. The population is also one of the most youthful in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with more than 38% of all citizens in 2010 in the 20-44 age group that is crucial for retail sales, according to UN Population Division data.

In 2008, according to the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), the biggest increase in sales (38.7%) came from retailers selling clothes and footwear. Retailers selling furniture, radio and television equipment and household appliances recorded an increase of 28.8%. Other groups with high sales were books and stationery (20.9%), and pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment (15.8%).

The trend for increased spending on non-essential, non-food items is a reflection of the maturing of the Polish retail market as it begins to track more closely Western European purchasing trends. Teenagers and young adults in particular are driving fashion sales in Poland.

Retail sub-sectors that are likely to achieve steady growth over the period include automotives, with BMI forecasting that sales will rise from a predicted US$5.74bn in 2011 to US$7.80bn towards the end of the period, an increase of nearly 36% with Poland outperforming its EU peers.

Consumer electronic sales are forecast to rise by more than 31%, from a predicted US$6.81bn in 2011 to US$8.93bn in 2015. The market offers continued growth potential due to relatively low penetration in product groups such as computers and digital cameras - at about 30% and 25% of the population respectively.

Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are expected to grow by 28.5%, from US$3.05bn in 2011 to US$3.92bn by 2015.

BMI food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 36.7% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$58.55bn in 2011, and sales are expected to grow by 58.4% to US$92.76bn by 2015. Our forecasts suggest an increase in the retail market share of food to 46.1% by 2015.

Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales are forecast to be US$27.32bn in 2011 and to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by more than 93% to US$52.79bn by 2015. This would take MGR's share of the overall food market from 46.7% in 2011 to 56.9% by the end of the forecast period. Poland is one of the key MGR markets in the CEE region. With disposable incomes rising, more Polish consumers are converting to modern retail formats.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,280bn based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI's macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,206bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 79% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to fall only slightly, to 78%, by 2015. Poland's predicted 2011 market share of 12.5% is expected to increase to 12.7% by 2015.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/127240_poland_retail_report_q2...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.