MENA Crisis: The Key Risk to Global Recovery and Stability

MENA Crisis: The Key Risk to Global Recovery and Stability is a new 46-page report published by Business Monitor International (BMI) that examines the consequences of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
By: Business Monitor International
 
March 9, 2011 - PRLog -- The unrest in the Middle East and North Africa poses the biggest risk to the global economic recovery this year, not least because it is causing oil prices to spike higher. In the worst-case scenario in which prices jump to US$200/bbl, even if only for a brief period, this would pose a severe risk to global growth, inflation and policymaking.

Now no country in the MENA region is immune to experiencing large-scale social unrest. The upcoming ‘Day of Rage’ in Saudi Arabia highlights the growing risks to regimes that were previously assumed to be fundamentally stable, according to a newly produced report from country risk specialists Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key findings from this new 46-page BMI special report include:

•   Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, and Yemen are at most risk of further instability. No state is immune to unrest and even Saudi Arabia is vulnerable. Any disturbances there could cause oil prices to surge to US$200/bbl.

•   Asia, the driver of global growth, is particularly vulnerable to high oil prices, because most countries in the region import more than 90% of their oil needs. Singapore, India, Vietnam, Indonesia and South Korea are among the most vulnerable.

•   A sharp spike to US$200/bbl (followed by a sharp drop) would shave about 0.5pp from BMI's forecast of 3.1% US growth in 2011 and 0.8pp from our 1.8% Eurozone forecast. On a global basis, net oil importers would unsurprisingly be hardest hit, with Turkey, South Africa, Singapore and India the worst off.

•   Oil exporting countries including Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, and Russia stand to benefit from the crisis, but if oil prices rise too high and remain elevated, these states will suffer as the global recovery falters.

•   Supply-side risks to oil and massive political uncertainty in a strategically important region are bad news for risk trades across global financial markets.

Further details about the report are available at http://store.businessmonitor.com/sr/mena_crisis_the_key_r...

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About Business Monitor International:

Established in 1984 with headquarters in London, Business Monitor International (BMI) is recognised as a leading independent source for analysis and forecasts on Country Risk (political, economic, business and financial) and Industry, spanning 175 countries. BMI’s research is taken by multinational corporations, banks, funds, research centres and governments in 140 countries around the world, including more than 400 of the Fortune Global 500 companies. Further details can be found at http://www.businessmonitor.com
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Source:Business Monitor International
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