Market Report, "Italy Commercial Banking Report Q1 2011", published

Fast Market Research recommends "Italy Commercial Banking Report Q1 2011" from Business Monitor International, now available
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* Debt
* Bank
* Italian
* Bond
* Certainly
* Deposit
* Banking
* Yields
* Sharp

* Finance
* Research
* Banking

* Massachusetts - US

Feb. 23, 2011 - PRLog -- The recent sharp spike in Italian government bond yields has raised concerns over the stability of the  banking sector, which holds a significant proportion of the debt. While we still believe Italy has a ticking  debt bomb on its hands, the high household savings rate and strong retail deposit base could still shield  the industry in the near term. Assuming that the sector muddles through this latest bout of investor  concerns, we hold to our view that bank assets will remain on a solid growth trajectory going forward.  The recent resurgence in eurozone sovereign debt fears has once again focused attention on the region's  heavily indebted banks. While the Italian financial system has fared reasonably well during the  international financial crisis, the sharp sell-off in government bonds has elevated concerns over banking  sector stability, especially in light of low capital adequacy ratios. While there are certainly weak spots in  the industry, we do not believe that a systemic crisis is on the cards for now.    The chief concern among the critics appears to be the level of bank capital. Although asset growth has  accelerated in recent months, hitting 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September by our estimates, capital  adequacy ratios are still only around 8%. While certainly lower than elsewhere in core Europe where  capital adequacy has been raised, Italian banks nonetheless benefit from a strong retail deposit base.  Indeed, customer deposits account for around half of liabilities and posted robust growth through 2010, reflecting the strong household saving rate in Italy. Moreover, a loan-deposit ratio well below unity  indicates that there are ample deposits to cover outstanding credit.  Concerns have also arisen over the national debt, which in nominal US$ terms is the third highest in the  world behind the US and Japan. Given our own apprehension over the ability of the government to pay  down this enormous debt load over the longer term, the high take up of debt by local banks certainly  poses a risk to the financial system should the bond market turn sour. Again, we believe that given the  high savings rate, this is not a credible risk for the time being. Indeed, given that the majority of debt is  held by Italian residents, who are typically less flight prone in the face of political and economic ructions,  the recent surge in bond yields is unlikely to spiral into a systemic crisis. Moreover, the re-emergence of  the European bond vigilantes may even be positive for Italian banks and spur an increase in capitalisation.  It is certainly positive that the rate of shareholders' equity growth has surged to over 20% y-o-y since  June.    Assuming that Italian banks can avoid painful write downs and maintain depositor confidence, we  forecast the industry to continue expanding over the medium term. More specifically, we forecast assets  to increase 4.3% y-o-y in 2011 before moderating to 3.9% in 2012, with loan growth following a similar  trajectory. We also expect the loan-deposit ratio to remain just under 90% over the medium term.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (EURbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At September 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2015 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
- Table: Projected Levels (EURbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Italy Commercial Banking SWOT
- Italy Political SWOT
- Italy Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Tabled: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
- Table: Develop States Banks' Bond Portfolios
- Table: Developed States Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2011
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2009-2010e (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010e (US$)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2009-2010
Europe Banking Sector Outlook
Italy Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Italy Economic Activity, 2008-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In Italy's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Major Banks In Italy
Company Profiles
- UniCredit Group
- Hypo Group Alpe Adria
- Intesa Sanpaolo
- Monte dei Paschi di Siena
- Banca Nazionale del Lavoro
- Banca Popolare di Verona
- Banca Popolare di Milano
- Banco Desio
- Antonveneta
BMI Banking Sector Methodology
- Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:Debt, Bank, Italian, Bond, Certainly, Deposit, Adequacy, Banking, Yields, Sharp
Industry:Finance, Research, Banking
Location:Massachusetts - United States
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