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Follow on Google News | Poland Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011: New research report available at Fast Market ResearchRecently published research from Business Monitor International, "Poland Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region is forecast to consume an estimated 636.3bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 747.7bcm targeted for 2015, representing 17.5% growth. Production of an estimated 787.9bcm in 2010 should reach 954.2bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 151.6bcm in 2010 to 206.5bcm by the end of the period. Poland's share of 2010 gas consumption is an estimated 2.20%, while it will have made a 0.55% contribution to regional supply. By 2015, its share of demand is forecast to be 2.41%, with Poland providing 0.45% of supply. The growing interest in Polish shale gas is unlikely to provide any significant additional volumes by this time. For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% year-on-year (y-o-y)). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25/bbl, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21/bbl and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40/bbl and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl. For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from 2009. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year's level. BMI forecasts Polish real GDP rising 3.4% in 2010 and we expect average annual growth of 4.1% from 2010-2015. A growing number of motor vehicles on the roads and renewed economic activity should push oil demand to 607,000b/d by 2015, representing annual growth beyond 2009 of around 1.5%. Given the bleak outlook for local supply, despite efforts by state explorer Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) and some international oil company (IOC) partners, the end-period import volume can be expected to reach 582,000b/d. We forecast gas consumption reaching 18.0bcm by 2015, requiring imports of 13.7bcm. Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast an increase in Polish oil consumption of 17.2%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 526,000b/d to 635,000b/d by the end of the 10-year period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 14.0bcm in 2010 to 20.9bcm by 2020, met by 16.8bcm of imports. Refining capacity is expected to increase by 37.5% between 2010 and 2020. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Poland now holds third place behind Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in BMI's composite Business Environment Ratings (BER) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now takes third place ahead of Turkey and Russia in BMI's updated upstream ratings, in spite of its humble hydrocarbons potential. The licensing regime, privatisation progress and healthy country risk environment help offset a modest reserves position and limited output growth prospects. Poland is near the top of the league table in BMI's updated downstream ratings, ranked equal second alongside Turkey and behind only Russia. It has some high scores that should protect it over the medium term from Ukraine below. The high level of oil demand is a strong suit, along with healthy gas demand growth prospects and a region-best competitive landscape. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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