Recently released market study: Venezuela Power Report Q1 2011

Jan. 30, 2011 - PRLog -- In this report, BMI forecasts that Venezuela will account for 10.03% of Latin America regional power generation by 2015. In order to avoid continuing power rationing, the country needs to slow the rate of growth in electricity consumption and expand generating capacity. Imports from neighbouring countries may be the only solution to near-term power shortages. BMI's Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,209 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 5.13% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,432TWh by 2015, representing an increase of 18.4% during 2010-2015.

Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 447TWh, accounting for 37.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2015 is 496TWh, implying 11.0% growth during 2010-2015, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 34.6% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Venezuela's thermal generation in 2010 is put at an estimated 36.5TWh, or 8.19% of the regional total. By 2015, the country is expected to account for 7.29% of thermal generation.

Oil has historically been the dominant fuel in Venezuela, accounting for an estimated 36.9% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), now virtually matched by gas at 36.6%, and followed by hydro-electric energy with a 25.9% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 780mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2015, representing 18.6% growth during 2010-2015. Venezuela's estimated 2010 market share of 11.44% is set to ease to 11.00% by 2015. There are no immediate plans to build nuclear reactors in Venezuela. However, in November 2008, the country's president, Hugo Chavez, announced that Russia plans to aid Venezuela in the construction of its first nuclear power plant.

Venezuela is ranked last, behind even Mexico, in BMI's updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its considerable generating capacity and low level of energy import dependency. The underdeveloped competitive landscape, regulatory issues and the threat of asset renationalisation conspire with country risk factors to deliver a particularly low score that may be insufficient, even over the longer term, to allow Venezuela to challenge Mexico.

BMI now forecasts average annual growth of 1.80% in Venezuelan real GDP between 2010 and 2015, with an increase of 1.90% assumed for 2011. Population is expected to expand from 28.8mn to 31.0mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to decrease by 32%. Electricity consumption per capita is expected to increase by just 4% during the period. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 83TWh in 2010 to 94TWh by 2015, thanks to government efforts to cap demand. A potential supply surplus of almost 11TWh is possible by 2015 after system losses, assuming a forecast 1.9% annual average increase (2010-2015) in electricity generation.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan electricity generation of 25.3%, which is near the bottom of the range for the Latin America region. This equates to 12.8% in the 2015-2020 period, up from 11.1% in 2010-2015. PED growth is set to ease from 12.8% in 2010-2015 to 9.7% in 2015-2020, representing 23.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 16% in hydro-power use during 2010-2020 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 29% between 2010 and 2020. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/111611_venezuela_power_report_...


Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Venezuela Power Business Environment SWOT
- Venezuela Political SWOT
- Venezuela Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
- Global
- Table: Global Summary, 2008-2015
- Latin America
- Table: Latin America Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Thermal Power Generation, 2008-2015 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Primary Energy Demand, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
- Table: Latin America Gas Consumption, 2008-2015 (bcm)
- Table: Latin America Coal Consumption, 2008-2015 (mn toe)
- Table: Latin America Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2008-2015 (TWh)
Market Overview
- Primary Energy Demand
- Power Generation
- Power Consumption
- Regulation And Competition
- Pricing
- Power Transmission
Business Environment
- Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings
- Venezuela's Power Rating
- Rewards
- Risks
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Venezuela's Power Outlook
- Generation
- Gas-Fired
- Oil-Fired
- Coal-Fired
- Nuclear Energy
- Hydro-Electric
- Renewable Energy
- Power Costs
- Transmission
- Table: Venezuela's Power Sector, 2008-2015
- Table: Venezuela's Thermal Power, 2008-2015
- Table: Venezuela's Non-Thermal Power, 2008-2015
- Table: Venezuela's Power Costs, 2008-2015
- Assumptions And Methodology
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Power Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Global Snapshot
- Table: Global Summary, 2013-2020
- Latin America
- Table: Latin America Electricity Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Primary Energy Demand, 2013-2020 (mn toe)
- Table: Latin America Thermal Power Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Hydro-Electric Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Nuclear Generation, 2013-2020 (TWh)
- Venezuela Country Overview
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
- Edelca
- EDC
BMI Methodology
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=1116...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.