"Turkey Tourism Report Q1 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

Jan. 26, 2011 - PRLog -- Following a sharp slowdown in growth of foreign visitor arrivals in 2009, to an estimated 4% year-onyear (y-o-y), the latest official provisional data, for the first 10 months of 2010, show a reasonable increase in visitor arrivals of 6.3% y-o-y. After very strong growth in March and May, of 17% and 16% respectively, growth was flat in July and negative in August - the two most important months for tourism in Turkey - but picked up favourably in September and October, compared to the same months in 2009.

Hospitality

After very poor figures for the hospitality sector in Q110 (total room nights were down by 17% y-o-y) and a recovery in the following quarter (nights up by 6.5% y-o-y), the data for Q310 show broadly flat growth for the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights, which totalled nearly 135mn. Foreign tourist room nights, which accounted for almost 72% of the total, were up by 2.2% y-o-y, while room nights by domestic tourists fell by over 4% y-o-y.

Bomb Attacks Continue

Turkey was hit by a wave of fatal bomb attacks in 2010, two in Istanbul in mid-2010, one in September in south-east Turkey and another in Istanbul in October. The most recent attack was a suicide bombing on October 31 2010 that injured 32 people, including 10 police officers. The blast was near the Monument of the Republic in Taksim Square in the centre of Istanbul. The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons later claimed responsibility for the attack.

Forecast Scenario

Our forecast of 6% annual growth in foreign arrivals to Turkey in 2010 remains unchanged this quarter, with growth expected to edge up over the short term. The basis of these forecasts is economic recovery in Turkey's major source markets, including the eurozone, Russia and the UK. In regards to the eurozone, our growth forecasts stand at 1.6% for 2010 and 1.5% for 2011, with German growth at 3.2% and 1.9% over the same period. We also forecast solid economic growth of over 4% in Russia in 2010 and 2011. A factor likely to constrain growth in foreign tourism though is BMI's forecast of an appreciation trend for the Turkish lira against the euro and the US dollar over the next few years. We anticipate the lira at TRY1.4000/US$ and TRY1.8000/EUR at the end of 2011 and TRY1.2000/US$ and TRY1.5500/EUR by the end of 2012.

Istanbul Ataturk Airport

In the wake of 2009's modest annual growth of 4% in total passenger traffic at Istanbul Ataturk Airport, there was a relatively strong recovery in growth in international traffic in the first eight months of 2010 of 11% y-o-y.

Turkish Airlines

Turkish Airlines (THY)'s preliminary results for the first nine months of 2010 show an operating profit of TRY528mn (US$352mn), down by 18% y-o-y. Net profit almost halved to TRY256mn (US$171mn). Sales revenue, however, increased by over 22% y-o-y to TRY6.28bn (US$4.2bn). Growth in the number of passengers in January-October 2010 was impressive, up by over 17% y-o-y to more than 24.5mn. The numbers of international business class passengers and international transit passengers increased by 29.6% and 17.6% y-o-y respectively. In winter 2010/11, THY started operating a new route, Istanbul- Washington-Atlanta-Washington-Istanbul, closed the Ankara-Denizli route and started domestic flights between Sabiha Gokcen and Sivas.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Turkey Tourism SWOT
- Turkey Political SWOT
- Turkey Economic SWOT
- Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals
- Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2015
- Accommodation
- Tale: Accommodation Data, 2006-2015
- Expenditure
- Tale: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2015
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism By Region, 2006-2015
- Table: Inbound Tourism By Country, 2006-2015 ('000)
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2015
Market Overview - Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Table: Key Players - Turkish Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Products Price Assumptions, 2010 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts, 2008-2015 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
- Accommodation Developments
- Health Tourism
- Tourism Infrastructure
- Regional Case Study: Accor
Business Environment Outlook
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Turkey's Security Risk Ratings
- City Terrorism Ratings
- Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
- Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
- Europe Security Overview
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2014
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
- Table: BMI And Consensus Forecasts, 2010-2011 (%)
- Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2009-2012 (%)
- Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth, 2009-2012 (%)
Company Profiles
- Turkish Airlines
- Dedeman Hotels & Resorts International
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings - Methodology
- Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting of Components
- City Terrorism Ratings
- Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.