Lithuania Telecommunications Report 2011: New research report available at Fast Market Research

Jan. 25, 2011 - PRLog -- BMI's 2011 report on Lithuania's telecoms market contains updated and extended forecasts that predict how the country's fixed-line, internet, broadband and mobile sectors will develop through to the end of 2015. Our new forecasts reflect Q310 data published by Lithuania's fixed-line incumbent operator TEO LT as well as Q310 data for the country's three mobile operators, Omnitel (which is wholly owned by Nordic carrier TeliaSonera), privately owned Bite Lithuania and Tele2 Lithuania, the Lithuanian arm of Swedish carrier Tele2 AB. Our report also incorporates data published by Lithuania's telecoms regulator, the Communications Regulatory Authority of the Republic of Lithuania (RRT). The latest regulatory data relates to the end of H110.

According to data published by the RRT and Lithuania's three mobile network operators, the country's mobile customer base shrank by 2.7% in the first half of 2010. The shrinking customer base is understood to reflect the deduction of inactive prepaid customers from the network operators' reported totals. BMI estimates that Lithuania's mobile subscriber base shrank by 3.8% in the 12 months ending December 2010. By the end of the year, the country had a total of 4.77mn mobile customers representing a penetration rate of 144.6%.

We expect Lithuania's mobile operators to continue with their strategy of migrating prepaid customers over onto postpaid contracts. However, the operators also recognise the importance of serving the prepaid segment with innovative prices and services. Meanwhile, in a bid to stabilise or even raise ARPU levels, operators such as Omnitel and Bite have sought to promote and expand their mobile data and internet offerings. In June 2010, Bite revealed plans to increase the number of 3G base stations on its network by 45%, in a bid to boost mobile broadband coverage by 40% by the end of 2010. Meanwhile, in October 2010, Omnitel announced that it had expanded its HSPA wireless network to 14 towns and cities in the first nine months of 2010. By the end of the year, the company planned to launch 3.5G services in a further 40 new locations through the deployment of 100 base station transceivers (BTSs); this would have brought total coverage to 250 towns and cities.

The latest regulatory data suggest that there were nearly 519,000 active 3G (UMTS) subscribers in Lithuania as of June 2010. This figure was up from just over 460,000 at the start of the year. We now estimate that there were around 574,000 3G customers at the end of 2010 (representing approximately 12% of the mobile subscriber base). Over the next five years, we continue to envisage strong and steady growth in the number of 3G customers.

The next five years will also bring strong growth in the number of mobile broadband connections. In 2010, we estimate that Lithuania's broadband subscriber base expanded by 8.2% to reach 859,000. This was equivalent to a penetration rate of 26%. We predict that optical fibre will continue to drive much of the growth in the Lithuania's fixed broadband sector. The ongoing deployment of (fibre to the home) FTTH and (fibre to the building) FTTB services will result in the continuation of negative growth in the DSL and cable segments. However, it is within the mobile broadband sector that the greatest subscriber growth is anticipated for the duration of our forecast period. Regulatory data show that mobile broadband connections based on USB sticks and other mobile devices were the main drivers behind Lithuanian broadband market growth in 2009 and H110. The number of mobile broadband connections grew by 38.1% in 2009 and by a further 9.1% in H110. By the end of June 2010, such customers numbered nearly 175,000 and accounted for over 21% of all Lithuanian broadband connections.

Finally, we estimate that there were just less than 746,000 fixed telephony lines in service at the end of 2010, down by 0.2% year-on-year (y-o-y).This gave Lithuania a fixed-line penetration rate of 22.6%, unchanged on the previous year. Going forward, our new fixed-line forecast for Lithuania envisages a period of sustained decline over the next five years. Lithuania has one of the lowest fixed-line penetration rates in CEE. BMI believes that this is the main reason why market growth remained buoyant compared with other markets in the region.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/110338_lithuania_telecommunica...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.