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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "Australia Autos Report Q1 2011", publishedNew Transportation research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
If this 10-month cumulative performance were replicated over the full year, this would see a total of 1.034mn vehicles sold. Our current forecast for the full year is slightly more bullish than this, calling for aggregate new vehicle sales of 1.05mn for 2010, representing a 12% increase y-o-y. On the production side, output for the first 10 months of 2010 stands at 206,842 units, an increase of 14% y-o-y. For now, we retain our full-year forecast of 237,956 units, but would state that risks to this figure now lie to the upside, given the strong performance year to date. Risks to our production, sales, import and export forecasts are currently finely poised. An unexpected increase in interest rates (to 4.75%) by the Reserve Bank of Australia in November 2010 could now see some consumers putting off the purchase of a car until the New Year, which could see a slight downside risk to our current forecasts. Moreover, the world could yet experience a double-dip economic downturn, especially if there is a 'hard landing' for consumer demand in China. Such a scenario would result in slower economic growth, job losses and a reversal of the current positive trajectory of consumer demand (and hence domestic auto sales) in Australia in 2011. It would also impact on car demand across the region, adversely affecting the production and exports of new vehicles by Australia. Cash For Clunkers Rebate To Boost Sales In 2011? One stimulant to vehicle new sales in Australia could come from Prime Minister Julia Gillard's announcement in July 2010 that buyers of new fuel-efficient vehicles should receive an AUD2,000 rebate for the trading-in of their older, less fuel-efficient vehicles made before 1995. The government has promised to put AUD430mn into this scheme, enough to cover some 200,000 cars, which is scheduled to start on January 1 2011. The FCAI has backed the proposal, but the industry body's CEO, Andrew McKellar, has since gone further, suggesting to The Age newspaper in October 2010 that an AUD5,000 rebate would be more appropriate, but with the proviso that this rebate is then more strictly targeted to people buying the most environmentally- This way, the FCAI believes that the total cost of the scheme to the Australian taxpayer would be less, but the overall environmental benefits would be the same. The FCAI would like the money saved by adopting this more targeted approach (estimated by The Age at some AUD200mn) to then be reinvested back into the country's Green Car Innovation Fund, whose budget was itself cut by AUD200mn during the 2010 election campaign. Clearly, any more focused rebate scheme would benefit the lowest-emitting vehicles on sale in the Australian market, such as Toyota's Prius, Daimler's smartfor two and Suzuki's Alto. At the present time, the rebate would be offered for trading in mid-range cars such as the Holden Commodore, Ford Falcon and Toyota Camry models. Industry Minister Kim Carr has said that he is happy to discuss the FCAI's suggestions, but has warned that he would not want to tighten access to the rebate in a way that would be detrimental to models produced within Australia. Looking forward, the increased parliamentary representation for the Green Party following the August 2010 elections could provide a further boost to eco-friendly vehicle initiatives in Australia. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Report Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Australia Auto Industry SWOT - Australia Political SWOT - Australia Economic SWOT - Australia Business Environment SWOT Asia Pacific Regional Overview - Companies Prepare For Upsizing Trends Business Environment Ratings - Table: Business Environment Ratings - Auto Industry Asia Pacific Industry Forecast Scenario - Table: Australia Autos Production - Table: Australia Autos Sales - Table: Other Indicators - Risks - Trade - Table: Australia Autos Trade Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario - Table: Australia - Economic Activity Competitive Landscape - Table: Australia - Vehicle Production 2006-1010 - Table: Australia - Top 10 Vehicle Sales, January-October 2008/2009 - Company Developments - Alternative Fuels/ Eco Policy Developments - Commercial Vehicle Segment - Table: Australia - Commercial Vehicle Sales, 2005-2010 - Suppliers Company Monitor - Ford Asia Strategy Yields Record Results Company Profiles - Ford Motor - GM Holden - Toyota Motor Country Snapshot: Australia Demographic Data - Section 1: Population - Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 - Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2012 - Section 2: Education And Healthcare - Table: Education, 2002-2005 - Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 - Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power - Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 - Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) - Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Forecasting Model - Sources About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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