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Follow on Google News | New market study, "Egypt Metals Report Q1 2011", has been publishedNew Materials market report from Business Monitor International: "Egypt Metals Report Q1 2011"
In 2010, BMI expects Egyptian crude steel output to grow by around 14.8% y-o-y to 6.3mn tonnes. Emphasising the resilience of the local industry, output did not follow the global downward trend after May and by October 2010, monthly production had reached 557,000 tonnes, the highest level since April 2008 (although July output was also 557,000 tonnes) and 23% up on the previous October. In 2011, the Egyptian metals market will be held back by relatively low domestic demand, compounded by a downturn in demand in Europe and expansion in output in Turkey and the Middle East, which will also undermine Egyptian exports. However, the long-term growth prospects are good, assisted by government expenditure growth and low interest rates. There are, however, major concerns over the future of the Egyptian aluminium industry in the face of strong competition from new production capacity in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), where producers have capacities of around 1mn tonnes per annum (tpa). The state-owned smelter in Naga Hammadi, which currently produces just 23,000 tonnes of aluminium annually - well below operational capacity - will need modernisation and substantial expansion over the medium term in order to remain operational and efficient. BMI estimated apparent finished steel consumption growth of 16% to 8.37mn tonnes in 2010, with domestic crude reaching 6.31mn tonnes (up 14.5%, an increase from the 13.6% previous forecast) and hot rolled output reaching 6.8mn tonnes (up 14.5%, revised upwards from 12.5%). The industry performed ahead of pre-recession levels and compares favourably with the steel industry worldwide. The country has been operating well under full capacity, with a utilisation rate of just 65% of its 8.8mn tpa potential. Even without further capacity expansion, Egypt has the potential to grow by over 50% using currently operating plants. BMI expects annual crude output growth to be sustained at 10-14%, with 2015 volumes set to near 11.2mn tonnes. Although this represents a 77% increase over 2010 estimates, it will still not be enough to cover domestic demand, which is set to grow by 56% to around 13.06mn tonnes in 2015. The steel industry's growth is supported by continuing investment in new capacity. In Q410, the Egyptian government launched a tender for licences to produce 3mn tonnes of steel, requiring investments worth EGP3.2bn (US$561.9mn) In November 2010, the Ministry of Trade and Industry announced that 10 companies had applied for licences. Meanwhile, in October 2010, a technical study was launched by Egyptian Iron and Steel Company to renovate a 480,000tpa blast furnace, increasing its capacity to 665,000tpa. The company also plans to change its hot rolling system to achieve power savings of 30%. The overall cost of the upgrading plan is anticipated to reach US$55mn, taking up to three years to complete. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Report Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Egypt Political SWOT - Egypt Economic SWOT - Egypt Business Environment SWOT - Commodities Forecast - Aluminium - Table: BMI's Aluminium Forecasts - Table: Aluminium, 2006-2012 - Zinc - Table: BMI's Zinc Forecasts - Table: Zinc, 2005-2012 - Tin - Table: BMI's Tin Forecasts - Table: Tin, 2006-2012 Africa Overview - Steel - Aluminium - Table: Aluminium Smelters In Africa Forecast Scenario - Table: Egypt Metals Industry, 2007-2015 ('000 tonnes unless stated) - Macroeconomic Forecasts - Table: Egypt - Economic Activity, 2006-2015 Competitive Landscape - Table: Ezz Steel Facilities - Financial Results Company Profiles - Ezz Steel - Aluminium Company of Egypt (Egyptalum) Global Assumptions Q1 2011 - Table: Global Assumptions - Table: Global & Regional Real Gdp Growth % Chg Y-O-Y - Table: Developed States, Real Gdp Growth Forecast - Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth - Table: Consensus Forecasts BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Cross Checks About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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