Market Report, "Mexico Defence & Security Report 2011", published

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Mexico Defence & Security Report 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
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Jan. 10, 2011 - PRLog -- In September 2010, US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton made a comparison between Mexico's current situation with regards to domestic drug cartels and that of Columbia twenty years ago, suggesting that Mexico's political situation is beginning to resemble an insurgency. This statement was made to the Council on Foreign Affairs, in Washington. This opinion was swiftly rebuked by the Mexican government and President Obama also distanced himself from the claim. However, it remains an abiding theme in consideration of the current state of Mexican society, with several high-profile gang related actions in the past year. Of particular note are a spate of political assassinations, the killings of 72 illegal immigrants who were attempting to be smuggled into the United States, and the first car bomb of the war against drugs. Despite Governmental claims to the contrary, it seems that there is a growing shadow state in some parts of the country, in which sovereignty is at least partially taken by drug cartels.

For instance, in December 2009, cartels kidnapped the elderly parents of the both the town administrator and the city council secretary of Tancitaro. Shortly afterwards, the majority of the town's council, the mayor and the entire police force of 60 had resigned. Dante Haro, a criminology professor, has suggested that this trend will damage democracy within Mexico as a whole, as intelligent and capable people are too scared to run for office, reported the Republic Mexico City Daily. Furthermore, there has been a rise in killings of more senior politicians than has previously been the case, including eleven mayors over the course of 2010. Politicians at this level are seen to be particularly vulnerable, as they often have responsibility over trying to clear out corrupt officials and police officers within their municipality. Many of those who work in the northern part of the country have started spending their nights in the United States.

Defence expenditure in 2009 was estimated at US$4.7bn, the same as 2008. This represents a very low figure of spending - roughly 0.5% of GDP. These figures are not low in comparison to the recent past, and BMI's projections do not see these figures changing wildly within the forecast period.

These figures are very low for the region, partially due to the low level of outside conflict which Mexico has been involved in the recent past. Additionally, close proximity to America has offered strong protection - in terms of both aid and political will. Membership of NAFTA has also led to deep integration, and subsequent security.

However, although the budget may grow in US dollar terms along with improved economic figures, the main challenge for the Mexican armed forces is to take advantage of budget increases by acquiring new equipment. Relatively low defence expenditure, especially in advanced military systems for land and aerospace, may also be due to the government's desire to avoid equipping an overly powerful military that could challenge its authority.

The role of American aid through the Merida Initiative in particular has led to increasingly close ties between the security services of the USA and Mexico. Recent instances of this have included a weapons tracing programme, and an increased commitment to crack down on gun smuggling from Texas and Arizona. This bond has also led to an increase in the funds available for procurement, as most of the Military budget is taken up with salaries. However, these funds look likely to be increasingly used to apply pressure to the Government of Calderon, particularly with reference to perceptions of human rights abuses carried out by state agencies, particularly the army.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Mexico Security SWOT
- Mexico Defence Industry SWOT
- Political SWOT Analysis
- Economic SWOT Analysis
- Business Environment SWOT Analysis
Global Political Outlook
- Global Hotspots
- Latin America: More Of The Same
- Western Europe
- Central Europe
- South Eastern Europe
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union
- Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
- Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
- Wild Cards
Global Security Outlook
Latin America Security Overview
- Political Risk Analysis - The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
- Latin America In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Security
- Border Disputes And Resource Conflict
- Water Scarcity
- Ethnic Tensions And Indigenous Peoples
- Islamist Militancy
- Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security
- Table: Latin America Security Ratings
- Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
- Mexico's Security Risk Rating
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Latest Developments
- Mexico-US Relations
- Al-Qaeda
- Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2006('000, including conscripted)
- US-Mexican Military Co-operation
Market Overview
- Arms Trade Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Mexico's Government Defence Expenditure; 2008-2015
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Mexico - Economic Activity
Company Profiles
- Honeywell Aerospace
- Mendoza
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: Methodology
- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Tags:Security, America, Defence, City, Military, Terrorism, Armed, Mexican, Drug, Council
Industry:Defense, Government, Research
Location:Massachusetts - United States
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