New Market Research Report: Serbia Defence & Security Report 2011

New Defense research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
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Jan. 10, 2011 - PRLog -- When major defence reforms are concluded in early 2011, Serbia's armed forces will number nearly 36,000 members, theoretically adhering to high professional standards. Serbian officials assert that their armed forces contribute to Balkan stability, though some neighbours undoubtedly see them more as a threat than a reassuring presence. While Serbia is looking to streamline its armed forces, it is loath to lose its defence capabilities.

Serbia is expected to join EU missions from 2011, according to an October 2010 report in Business News. This will be the first time that Serbia has participated in missions outside the aegis of the UN. The launch of operations with the EU will coincide with the conclusion of Serbia's military professionalisation programme. Serbian forces are expected to be deployed to the Somali coast with an EU force to tackle piracy in the region.

We believe that Serbia will, over a multi-year time horizon, moderate its stance on the issue of Kosovan independence. We believe that Kosovo's defacto independence is now irreversible given outright support from the United States. Additionally, further countries are likely to recognise Kosovo in light of the ICJ's ruling, adding to the 69 which already do so. As time passes and recognition grows, Kosovo will, in our view, move towards the 100 country recognition required to join the United Nations. Furthermore, we do not believe Serbia's government will seek to escalate regional tensions over the issue. Instead, we expect it to slowly moderate its stance and rhetoric over the issue as alternative foreign relations goals, such as EU integration, take precedence and Belgrade increasingly recognises the irreversible state of affairs.

BMI estimates that defence spending totalled US$854m in 2010, equal to 5.0% of overall government expenditure and 2.4% of GDP. This represented a 10.24% cut in defence spending in dollar terms as the Serbian government looked to tackle the country's worrying fiscal deficit and continue scaling back defence outlay. In constant price terms, spending was cut 16%. Per capita spending was only US$117.20.

For 2011, we forecast that expenditure will fall further to US$805m or US$110.70 per capita as the austerity drive continues, representing a 5.75% cut, or 13% in constant price terms. However, defence will account for 5.3% of total government outlay, suggesting that other areas will now be cut ahead of defence. As a proportion of GDP, spending will stay at 2.4%.

We expect defence spending growth in dollar terms to rebound from 2012, rising from 7.87% that year to 10.42% in 2014, moderating only slightly to 9.37%-9.59% for the following five years. As a proportion of government spending, defence will rise to 5.6% in 2012, peaking at 5.7% in 2015-2016 and then dropping back to 5.3% by 2019; as a proportion of GDP, we expect a flatline at 2.4% for the duration of the forecast period, thus keeping levels constant since 2008. By 2019, BMI expects defence expenditure of US$1.628bn, or US$230.30 per capita.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Serbia Security SWOT
- Serbia Defence Industry SWOT
- Serbia Political SWOT
- Serbia Economic SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Global Hotspots
- Table: Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011
- Latin America: More Of The Same
- Western Europe
- Central Europe
- South Eastern Europe
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union
- Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
- Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
- Wild Cards
Global Security Outlook
Political Risk Analysis - The Future Of NATO
Regional Security Overview
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Serbia's Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Domestic Political Overview
Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Latest Developments
- External Security Situation
- Latest Developments
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Overview
- Professionalisation
- Pre-Split Armed Forces
- International Deployments
- Table: Foreign Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
- Arms Trade Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Procurement Trends And Developments
- Latest Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Serbia's Military Personnel, 2005-2008 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Serbia's Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
- Macroeconomic Activity
- Table: Serbia - Economic Activity; 2006-2015
Company Profiles
- Prvi Partizan S-M
- Zastava Oruzje S-M
- Krusik
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: Methodology
- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:Defence, Security, Terrorism, Armed, Ratings, Kosovo, City, Serbian, Stance, Military
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