"Libya Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

Jan. 9, 2011 - PRLog -- The latest Libya Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 7.56% of African regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 15.56% of supply. African regional oil use of 3.06mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 3.81mn b/d in 2010. It should average 3.90mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around 4.40mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 7.93mn b/d in 2001, and will in 2010 average an estimated 10.18mn b/d. From an estimated 10.52mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 12.08mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging behind the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.87mn b/d. This total rises to an estimated 6.36mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.68mn b/d by 2015. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to climb if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 123.4bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 175.9bcm forecast for 2015. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 322.6bcm in 2015, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 96bcm to 147bcm in 2015. In 2010, Libya will consume an estimated 5.11% of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 5.68% by 2015. It will have contributed 7.38% to estimated 2010 regional gas production and by 2015 will account for 7.75% of supply.

For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$9.16/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering around US$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC price averaging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From 2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.

For the whole of 2010, the BMI assumption for the global gasoline price is an average US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl, probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$77.65/bbl, up almost 31% from the previous year's level.

Libyan real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 3.2% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.5% in 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 279,000b/d in 2010 to 333,000b/d in 2015. State-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) accounts for some 40% of oil production and all gas production, but it has a growing number of international oil company (IOC) partners contributing to a forecast rise in oil production from an estimated 1.66mn b/d in 2010 to 1.88mn b/d by 2015. The state itself has far more ambitious volume goals that may be frustrated by OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach 25bcm by 2015, up from an estimated 16bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from around 6bcm to 10bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of 15bcm.

Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Libyan oil and gas liquids production of 36%, with volumes rising steadily to 2.25mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 45.2%, with growth slowing to an assumed 4% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 405,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise to 27bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 92.8% between 2010 and 2020, there should be export potential increasing to around 15bcm, via pipeline and in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Libya now shares third place with Egypt in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It continues to occupy first place in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The country's score benefits from its proven oil reserves and a region-topping oil reserves-to-production ratio (RPR). The competitive landscape features numerous nonstate companies, and licensing terms are generally good. However, country risk factors undermine some of the hydrocarbons-specific strength. Libya is in the middle of the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, with a few high scores but near-term progress up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked fifth thanks to poor country risk factors, a largely state-controlled industry and reasonable oil and gas demand growth prospects.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.