Market Report, "Libya Defence & Security Report Q1 2011", published

New Defense research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
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Jan. 6, 2011 - PRLog -- Libya's relative economic isolation buffered it from the worst of the global financial crisis, increasing its appeal to foreign investors looking for new growth opportunities. Our real GDP growth forecast for 2010 is 3.8% (year on year) y-o-y, largely due to an increase in oil prices. We expect GDP growth to reach 5.8% in 2015. As well as higher oil prices, continuing market liberalisation should help erode structural inefficiencies and foster job creation in the private sector.

Perceptions that Libya remains a pariah state continue to undermine its risk profile. Not only does this jeopardise foreign investment inflows, but it may also limit the ability of Libya's sovereign wealth fund to translate the country's burgeoning oil wealth into investments in more developed Western economies.

There is no significant military threat or rivalry in the North African states (the Maghreb), despite some tensions existing between Libya, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco. These countries maintain military forces primarily to protect their borders, and only provide for token forces outside the region.

Internally, we believe that there are no serious threats to Libya's domestic stability in the short to medium term. The removal of economic sanctions in 2004 and the subsequent rise in oil exports drove popular support for fairer income distribution and to this end, the government's plans to invest heavily in infrastructure should placate any discontent arising from this. After years of sanctions, the strong growth in real GDP and GDP per capita will only improve living standards.

Libya's defence industry is limited, and almost entirely state-owned. There is no ministry of defence, since all defence functions - presumably including procurement and production - are centralised under the presidency.

Despite efforts to develop a credible indigenous defence industry after Qadhafi assumed power in 1969, Libya's production capability remains negligible. Historically, Libya has been one of the largest customers of the Soviet Union/Russia for defence equipment. Much of Libya's military equipment is obsolete and dates back to the Soviet era. However, modernisation is underway.

Libya signed a military-technical cooperation deal with Russia in 2010, worth US$1.8bn (EUR1.3bn). By any measure the contract is a large one, worth nearly a quarter of the Russian state arms exporter's entire sales in 2009, which were put at about US$7.4bn. It will include the modernisation of about 200 T-72 main battle tanks for the Libyan Army over the next few years.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Libya Security SWOT
- Libya Defence Industry SWOT
Global Defence Overview
- Global Hotspots
- Latin America: More Of The Same
- Western Europe
- Central Europe
- South Eastern Europe
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union
- Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending
- Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China
- Wild Cards
Global Security Outlook
Middle East Security Overview
- The Middle East In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- The Outlook For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Libya's Security Risk Rating
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Table: Libyan Insurgent Groups
- Latest Developments
- External Security Situation
- Latest Developments - Megrahi's Release
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (including conscripted)
- Equipment
- International Deployments
- Table: International Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Latest Developments
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Forecast Scenario
- Defence Outlook
- Table: Libya's Armed Forces, 2008-2015 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Libya's Government Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015
- Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: Libya - Economic Activity; 2006-2015
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: Methodology
- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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Tags:Equipment, Quite, Defence, Military, Wants, Arms, Qadhafi, Soviet, Saif, Sometimes
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