New market study, "China Real Estate Report Q1 2011", has been published

Dec. 8, 2010 - PRLog -- The latest (mid-2010) round of interviews with our in-country sources in China confirm that, overall, the authorities in Beijing (who see the real estate sector as an instrument with which the overall economic growth rate can be lifted to) and local governments (who part fund their operations through land sales) have been reasonably adroit in their management of markets. Across the four cities from which we have gathered data - Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan and, from mid-2010, Shenzhen - price falls and property gluts were a challenge for protagonists in most sub-sectors two years ago. Now, the markets have stabilised.

Our in-country sources reported that rental rates have fallen by single-digit amounts in each of the three main sub-sectors in Shanghai. Rentals has moved sideways or tracked sideways in the other cities. Looking forward to 2011, our sources are confident that rental rates will rise in Shanghai and Beijing.

The improvement in conditions is not just the result of a government fiat. It is partly a reflection of the general buoyancy of the economy and official attempts to boost domestic demand in the wake of the global financial crisis. It is also a reflection of ongoing urbanisation, a mega-trend, which involves one of the largest migrations of people in the history of mankind. However, it has also become obvious that real estate developers discounted property through 2009 and early 2010 in order to make sales.

Looking forward, we expect that capital values and yields will change little. We note, however, that rents may rise in Shenzhen from 2012 as new space is made available as a result of projects, which are currently under way. Crucially, we remain confident that the various protagonists (ie the developers and the various governments) will be able to manage supply/demand conditions so as to prevent a precipitous collapse in rental yields.

This report is based on interviews with in-country sources in late February and July 2010. In the immediate future, it is likely that our sources will comment on the impact of official measures to slow activity in the residential real estate market, particularly in Beijing and Shanghai. For what it is worth, we see the residential real estate market as being resilient. Press reports in late October 2010 indicated that the combined sales of the Big Four developers - China Vanke, Gemdale Corporation, Poly Real Estate Group and China Merchants Property Development - amounted to CNY137,700mn in the first nine months of the year - or about 4% lower than in the previous corresponding period. Particular developers have suffered lower sales and/or have had to cancel proposed capital raisings. However, there are few signs of real stress. If there is a risk, it is that the bubble that persists in particular markets (particularly parts of Shanghai and Beijing) results in a more aggressive tightening in policy by the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission. In the meantime, particular vertically integrated developers should be able to benefit from the government's substantial social housing program.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/96684_china_real_estate_report...

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- China Real Estate/Construction SWOT
- China Economic SWOT
- China Business Environment SWOT
Regional Real Estate Overview
- Table: Asia Pacific's Office Markets At A Glance - Rents, 2009-2011 (US$ per square metre per month)
- Table: Asia Pacific's Retail Markets At A Glance - Rents, 2009-2011 (US$ per square metre per month)
- Table: Asia Pacific's Industrial Markets At A Glance - Rents, 2009-2011 (US$ per square metre per month)
Real Estate Market Overview
- Table: China's Real Estate Markets - Rentals, 2008 And 2009 (msq per month, CNY)
- Table: China's Real Estate Markets - Net Yield, 2008 And 2009 (%)
- Table: China's Real Estate Markets - Terms of Contract/Lease
- Table: China's Real Estate Markets - Available Space And Vacant Space (msq)
Forecast Scenario
- Table: China Real Estate Markets - Rentals in msq/month (CNY)
- Table: China's Real Estate Markets - Net Yield, 2009-2015(%)
- Construction Overview
- Table: Infrastructure And Construction Data
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: China - Economic Activity, 2007-2015
Business Environment
- Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Asia Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
- China's Business Environment
- Table: BMI Business And Operational Risk Ratings
- Table: BMI Legal Framework Ratings
- Table: Annual FDI Inflows Into Asia, 2006-2008
- Table: BMI Trade Ratings
- Table: China's Top Export Destinations, 2001-2008 (US$mn)
Company Monitor
- China Merchants Group/ China Merchants Property Development (CMPD)
- China Vanke
- Gemdale Corporation
- Shanghai New Huangpu Real Estate
- Poly Real Estate Group
- Shanghai Industrial Development
- Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone
- Shanghai Wanye
- Shimao Property Holdings
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Construction Industry
- Bank Lending
- Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Project Finance Ratings Indicators
- Table: Design And Construction Phase
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Commercial Construction
- Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase - Energy And Utilities
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=9668...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.