Recently released market study: Oman Shipping Report Q1 2011

Dec. 4, 2010 - PRLog -- On a global level we see risks to all three core shipping sectors (container and dry and liquid bulk), with overcapacity and a drop in demand continually threatening to push down rates and impinge on lines' profits.

We are relatively bullish with regard to the Omani shipping sector's prospects, and are forecasting that the country's ports will all see growth in both tonnage and container throughput levels. Oman is diversifying away from an over-reliance on oil exports to become an industrial powerhouse, and as such it is developing its dry-bulk shipping sector, particularly at the port of Sohar. There are also developments at the port of Salalah in the pipeline; not only dry-bulk facilities but also an enlarged container terminal.

Headline Industry Data

* 2011 port of Sohar tonnage throughput forecast +8.84% following projected growth of +17.91% in 2010.
* 2011 port of Salalah TEU throughput forecast +5.53% following a projected growth of 1.19% in 2010.
* 2011 trade growth forecast at 1.94%.

Key Industry Trends

Diversification into the dry-bulk sector. Following its developments at the port of Sohar, Oman is also expanding its dry-bulk capabilities in the south of the country. At the port of Salalah a new general cargo terminal, capable of handling 40mn tonnes of dry bulk and 5mn tonnes of liquid products upon its completion, is to be constructed with an investment of US$195mn.

...But not neglecting its container-handling capabilities. Oman is also looking to expand its containerhandling capabilities, with plans to develop the port of Salalah until it is capable of handling 15mn TEUs per annum, which would make it one of the world's largest ports in terms of container throughput. Oman's national carrier has plans to expand and move into new sectors. Oman Shipping Company announced in September that it is to double its fleet over the next two years, from the 19 vessels it currently operates to 42 owned and chartered ships by 2012. The company will also make its initial foray into container shipping.

Key Risks to Outlook

The primary risk to our throughput projections for Oman are to the upside as the country continues to diversify its economy and build up the attendant ports and shipping infrastructure, and the Middle East region continues to see its throughputs grow. However, as this diversification continues the country does risk becoming over dependent on the Middle East region importing its pelletised iron ore and other drybulk commodities. 96426# The new Papua New Guinea (PNG) Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.13% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.36% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will have reach an estimated 27.11mn b/d in 2010, then rises to around 30.64mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and will average an estimated 8.91mn b/d in 2010. It is set to decrease slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 18.20mn b/d in 2010, and is forecast to reach 21.75mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.

In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region is expected to consume 489bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 633bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 77bcm to 84bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. PNG's share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 0.03%, while its share of production is put at 0.04%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.04%, with the country accounting for 6.57% of supply.

For 2011, there is considerable oil demand and oil price uncertainty, but still a very strong possibility that oil will trend higher. Economic growth may have been subdued late in 2010 and into early 2011, but should still support meaningful oil demand increases. Non-OPEC supply is likely to emerge only slightly higher so, with continued OPEC discipline, the foundations have been laid for an oil price rise - albeit falling well short of the improvement seen this year. It seems likely that the 2010 average OPEC basket price will have emerged around the US$77.00 per barrel (bbl) level, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) gain of approximately 27%. Progress towards at least US$80 is seen as achievable in 2011.

There is indirect state involvement in the upstream oil and gas industry, as the government is a minority owner of leading producer Oil Search, which is responsible for the country's current oil and gas supply, as well as being a partner in a planned gas export scheme that is due to enter production by 2014. We are assuming that oil and gas liquids will fall to around 32,000b/d by 2015. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 5.0% per annum, implying demand of at least 41,000b/d by 2015. The import requirement will therefore be around 9,000b/d by the end of the forecast period.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/96425_oman_shipping_report_q1_...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.