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Follow on Google News | New Market Research Report: Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010Fast Market Research recommends "Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010" from Business Monitor International, now available
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 638.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria's share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 0.47%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.65%. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. Bulgarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 1.6% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.4% in 2010-2014. Oil demand beyond the weakness of 2009/10 is forecast to rise by up to 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 107,000b/d by 2014. Imports can be expected to grow in line with consumption, as exploration efforts in the largely privatised hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.5bcm by 2014, demand is heading for 4.7bcm, requiring imports of 3.2bcm. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 18.9%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 96,000b/d in 2010 to 116,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Gas production is expected to rise from the estimated 2010 level of 0.2bcm to a peak of 1.5bcm by 2014, before slipping to 1.1bcm by 2019. Import dependency therefore increases from the estimated 2010 level of 3.0bcm to 6.0bcm at the end of the period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Bulgaria takes 12th place, behind Hungary, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds sixth place, ahead of Romania, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, limited production potential and constrained competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset by reasonable country risk factors. There is little scope for further progress up the league table during the next few quarters. Bulgaria now shares last place with Croatia in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect much near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region's lowest, and gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents another weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are among the best in the CEE region. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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