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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "Bahrain Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010", publishedNew Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed 379.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 481.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 22.1% growth. Production of 407.2bcm in 2009 should reach 588.9bcm in 2014 (+26.2%), which implies net exports rising to 108.0bcm by the end of the period. Bahrain's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 3.35%, while its share of production is put at 2.83%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.46%, with the country accounting for 2.70% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. Bahrain's real GDP is forecast by BMI to rise by 1.3% in 2010, with average annual growth of 5.0% in 2010-2014. Consumption of oil is set to rise with the moderate growth of the economy, reaching a maximum of 49,000b/d by 2014. The state accounts for all domestic oil and gas production, as well as the refining and distribution segment. International oil company (IOC) involvement is very limited. Thanks to a lack of significant resource potential and the absence of large-scale IOC upstream ventures, crude and liquids output is now averaging approximately 55,000b/d, with growth potential to reach 82,000b/d by 2014. Gas output is set to increase slightly from an estimated 13.2bcm in 2010 to 15.9bcm by 2014, with imports of 0.8bcm required by the end of the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Bahrain oil production of 81.8%, with crude volumes doubling to 100,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 30.5%, with growth at an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 57,000 b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to climb towards 18bcm by 2019. With 2010-2019 demand growth of 69.0%, this provides an import requirement of around 4.6bcm by 2019. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Bahrain ranks sixth, behind Iran, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The country this quarter retains fifth place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, three points above Iran. It has held this position in spite of its very modest oil and gas reserves thanks to an improving production growth outlook. There are low reserves-to- For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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