New Market Report Now Available: Indonesia Defence & Security Report Q4 2010

New Defense market report from Business Monitor International: "Indonesia Defence & Security Report Q4 2010"
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Oct. 17, 2010 - PRLog -- In July, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates visited Indonesia to discuss strengthening US-Indonesian military ties. He announced that Washington is lifting its ban on links with Indonesia's Kopassus special forces. The ban was imposed because of reported human rights abuses by Kompassus. Indonesia is seen as the largest and, arguably, the most strategically important state in South East Asia. On June 10, the Indonesian Ministry of Defence and the US Department of Defence signed the US-Indonesia Defence Framework Arrangement, which increases military cooperation in training, purchasing and maritime security.

The US moves to enhance its position in South East Asia are ultimately aimed at containing Chinese influence, which has been on the rise as the country has emerged as a major trade partner and source of investment for the region. The US is reasserting its influence in South East Asia, as it attempts to internationalise the dispute over the ownership of the South China Sea. These moves are infuriating to China - at stake is whether China will be able to exert its power beyond its borders.

Although Indonesia has returned to relative orderliness since the post-Suharto chaos of the late 1990s and early 2000s, the country faces multiple challenges and threats to its stability that could flare up again if President Yudhoyono or his successor proves incompetent or if improved governance fails to take hold. These include: poverty and unemployment; the young population profile; a high degree of ethnic diversity; an immature political system; and Islamist terrorism.

Terrorism will remain a threat for Indonesia over the longer term, despite the detention of radical Muslim cleric Abu Bakar Bashir in early August on suspected links to Islamic militant training camps. The Jakarta bomb attack in 2009 serves as a reminder against any complacency that Islamic militancy may be receding.

Piracy in South East Asia is still a major security issue, especially in the Malacca Strait and waters around Indonesia. The Strait is one of the world's main maritime 'chokepoints.' There are fears that terrorists could block the channel. Nine attacks were recorded from August 16 to September 2. Since February, 26 attacks have taken place around Indonesia's islands of Mangkai, Anambas and Natuna. In 2009, there were only seven for the whole year. The International Maritime Bureau has appealed to Indonesia to increase anti-piracy patrols, and has warned ships to keep a strict piracy watch.

Indonesia's real GDP growth reached 6.2% y-o-y in Q210, accelerating from 5.7% in the preceding quarter, taking H110 growth to a robust 6.0%. Beyond 2010, we project Indonesia's real GDP growth to reach 5.3% in 2011, headwinds from a slowing global economy notwithstanding. The growth momentum remains strong across all components of GDP by expenditure, excluding government consumption. Vibrant private sector demand supports our view that Indonesia will be able to sustain this level of economic growth over the long term, forecasting real GDP growth to average 6.2% over the coming decade.

This sanguine outlook for the Indonesian economy is largely due to its strong domestic economic fundamentals. However, we are projecting a slowdown in the major economies, including the US, China and the eurozone, going into 2011. Although Indonesia - with its large domestic consumption base - is relatively more insulated to a slowdown in external demand, there would still be some spill-over negative impact on the economy.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Indonesia Security SWOT
- Indonesia Defence Industry SWOT
- Indonesia Political SWOT
- Indonesia Economic SWOT
- Indonesia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Global Hotspots
- Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
- United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
- Latin America: Beyond Lula
- Western Europe: All About Austerity
- Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
- South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
- Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
- Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
- Wild Cards To Watch
South East Asia Security Overview
- The Strategic Outlook for the 2010s
- Poor Governance and Political Instability
- Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia
- Other Regional Threats
Political Overview
- Domestic Politics I
- Domestic Politics II
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Indonesia's Security Risks
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Asia City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Table: Indonesia's Insurgent Groups
- External Security Situation
- Latest Developments
Armed Forces and Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, '000 personnel)
- Defence Budget
- Army
- Navy
- Air Force
- International Deployments
- Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Industry Trends and Developments
- Competitive Landscape
- Table: Key Players In Indonesia's Defence Sector
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends and Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Indonesia's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Indonesia's Total Government Defence Expenditure And Employment, 2007-2014
- Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Indonesia - Economic Activity
Company Profiles

Full Table of Contents is available at:

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Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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