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Follow on Google News | New Market Report Now Available: United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010", is now available at Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed 379.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 481.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 22.1% growth. Production of 407.2bcm in 2009 should reach 588.9bcm in 2014 (+26.2%), which implies net exports rising to 108.0bcm by the end of the period. The UAE in 2010 will have consumed an estimated 15.62% of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 15.37% by 2014. It is set to contribute an estimated 10.50% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 10.19% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. UAE real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 4.8% in 2010, and we are assuming average annual growth of 3.9% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 470,000b/d in 2010 to 517,000b/d in 2014, lagging our underlying economic assumptions. State-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is the biggest national oil company, working in partnership with major international oil companies (IOCs) to deliver an estimated 2.63mn b/d of oil and liquids production in 2010, rising to 2.90mn b/d by the end of the forecast period - subject to OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach at least 60bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 49bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 62bcm to 74bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring net imports of around 14bcm. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in UAE oil production of 33.1%, with volumes rising steadily to 3.50mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 25.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 588,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 49bcm to 67bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2019 demand growth of 3.3%, this provides a net gas import requirement rising to 28bcm over the period. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. The UAE takes first place, above even Qatar, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. The Emirates now share second place with Iraq in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, thanks largely to its significant oil and gas resource base and investor-friendly climate. The UAE now stands three points behind Qatar and may have to settle for second best. UAE's score reflects the country's gas reserves, high RPR, plus non-state competition, established licensing framework and generally encouraging country risk factors. The UAE is well up the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, with several high scores and further progress up the rankings possible over the longer term. It is ranked equal third alongside Saudi Arabia, thanks largely to high scores for oil and gas demand, refining capacity expansion and nominal GDP. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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