China, Japan & Natural Gas Fields: Explosion Must Be Avoided

Sept. 22, 2010 - PRLog -- By David Caploe PhD, Chief Political Economist, EconomyWatch.com

Because China’s economic growth has been so spectacular over the past 15 or so years,

many people have forgotten its pre-condition has been a general political calm in East Asia.

This basic stability in the region – occasionally broken by North Korean outbursts, and unnecessary roils with Taiwan –

has allowed China to direct its energies on its extraordinary drive towards prosperity and increasing its people’s standard of living.

In structural terms, this relatively tranquil atmosphere has been made possible, believe it or not, by the post-WWII presence of the US military –

which, whatever its problems in the Muslim world, and the idiotic and destructive Vietnam war aside, of course –

has played an essentially constructive role in maintaining peace and order in the western Pacific.

Put bluntly, the US has played the role of “regional balancer”:

keeping potentially destructive tensions among the key East Asian nations

– above all, China / Japan / Korea – from getting out of control.

Unfortunately, the combination of America’s self-created/-assumed messes in the Middle East, and,

more deeply, the country’s own larger multi-faceted crisis –

financial / economic / ideological / political / intellectual-academic / media –

has opened up space all over the world for long-standing tensions to begin to creep ever closer to the surface.

The current tensions between Japan and China is, sadly, an example of how the absence of a strong US –

a weakness basically resulting from the self-destructive policies that began in the Reagan era,

but were multiplied exponentially by the utterly disastrous Cheney / Bush regime –

can create the possibility of explosive confrontations that can harm ALL concerned.

We have neither the time nor the inclination to go into the FULL history of Sino/Japanese relations.

As usual, neither side is blameless in this particular situation –

which, of course, only makes its resolution all the more difficult.

But we will make two overall remarks about each of the participants.

While we don’t think of China as in any way an imperial power –

that is, concerned with projecting its military power long distances from its borders,

economic influence, of course, being something quite different –

there is little doubt it can be extremely touchy about its immediate territorial prerogatives.

And while Japan has been fundamentally concerned since the two Lost Decades that began in 1989

with regaining its own economic strength and vitality,

it has been significantly remiss in never really confronting its responsibilities for crimes committed before and during World War II –

unlike Germany, which, through sheer force of vision and will,

has managed to transform itself at a base level into a country far different

than the one whose historical trajectory ended up creating the Third Reich.

These key points noted, the spectre of an active confrontation between China and Japan is utterly frightening –

and it is one that must be avoided at all costs,

not just for their own good, but the peace and stability of the entire region and world.

The incident itself seems relatively minor, albeit not too intelligent on either side:

It took place in the East China Sea, near islands known as Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu or Diaoyutai in Chinese.

The captain and crew of a Chinese fishing trawler were seized earlier this month by Japanese naval vessels,

which claimed the boat rammed them near several uninhabited islands controlled by Japan.

The boat and 14 crew members were released last week, but the captain was detained by Japan,

possibly facing charges of obstructing officials from performing their duty.

China is incensed Japan would apply its laws to Chinese nationals

and argues the issue is one for diplomacy, not another country’s legal system.

Some people would like to think this whole issue will be over in a week, September 29,

by which time Japan must – by its own laws, which, of course, is part of the anger of the Chinese,

who argue such a situation needs to be handled in an international framework

– either charge or release the captain.

But even if the captain is released by, or before, then,

this confrontation is indicative of a Chinese / Japanese relationship that has some serious structural problems –

and these will NOT go away even if the captain is released.

There are long-term reasons, of course.

But the most immediate issue – in the area where the incident, whatever it was, took place –

has to do with potentially lucrative undersea natural gas fields that lie directly between the two Asian giants.

A thorny issue for some time, the two sides agreed in 2008 to jointly develop the deposits.

Under that deal, Japanese will be allowed to invest and share in the profits of existing Chinese operations in the Chunxiao fields,

which Japan calls Shirakaba, that run closer to China,

while the two countries will jointly develop other fields farther out.

The agreement marked a real breakthrough in Japan-China relations, which had struggled to improve for years.

While it could have easily bogged down in territorial disputes,

the decision to shelve such claims in favor of progress is something almost unprecedented for the sides,

particularly China, which, as we noted above, generally takes a hard line on issues relating to immediate territorial sovereignty.

''The gas fields question has always been part and parcel of the Sino-Japanse relationship,''

said Sheila Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

But if this territorial dispute ''goes on the rocks, it could derail their ability to negotiate a common approach on the gas field reserves,'' she said.

And this is precisely why it is so critical that any kind of process that could end up in a mutually self-defeating explosion be stopped as soon as possible.

Unfortunately, things are escalating rather quickly – and disturbingly ...

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