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Earle, Carlton & Hughes Predicts Tin To Surge As Global Supply Lags Behind Demand
After being hit hard by the global recession tin demand looks as though it will outweigh supply at lease into next year. Earle, Carlton & Hughes Analysts predict a significant deficit this year, and a rising price for the commodity.
The metal, used in packaging, may gain 17.5 % from $21,600 a metric ton, analysts at Earle, Carlton and Hughes wrote in a recent Client Advisement. Tin reached a record $25,500 on May 15, 2008, before the global recession cut prices to less than $10,000 by December that year.
Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange dropped to 5.6 weeks of global consumption last month, from 8.2 weeks in late 2009, the Earle, Carlton and Hughes wrote in today’s report. The deficit may be 17,000 tons this year as solder and plate demand improves, compared with a surplus in 2009.
Supply may lag behind usage “through next year at least,” the report said. “It can be argued that there is 17.5 percent upside” from the level of $21,600 a ton, the analysts said.
Earle, Carlton Hughes’ Report is similar to that from many sources including Standard Bank Plc, which estimates tin production next year will be 13,000 tons less than demand after an estimated 6,000-ton shortage this year.
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