Market Report, "Libya Defence & Security Report Q4 2010", published

New Defense market report from Business Monitor International: "Libya Defence & Security Report Q4 2010"
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Sept. 13, 2010 - PRLog -- There was a time when the analysis of Libya was quite straightforward. The country was a pariah state, a supporter of multiple terrorist organisations and hardline anti-West. In the cold war dichotomy is was squarely in the Soviet camp.

Over time, though, that simple position has become more complex. Libya is now quite enigmatic. It uses its oil revenues and consequent economic leverage rather than terrorism to bargain for what it wants. It adopts a much more conciliatory approach to the EU and has lowered tensions with the United States, without actually being friendly towards the United States. On the other hand, Colonel Muammar Qadhafi still employs erratic, contradictory and arbitrary changes in policy that makes predicting future decisions almost impossible.

There is an increasingly important but unanswered question hanging over the succession. Qadhafi has been in power since 1969. His son Saif sometimes, but only sometimes, looks likely to succeed. Saif favours a more liberal economic policy and improved international relations.

The "old guard" opposes this. While the old guard holds a degree of power, they are indeed old in a country where one-third of the population is under 15 years of age. Finding jobs for this coming surge of young people entering the workforce will be the most important single factor in maintaining social cohesion.

Underneath the occasionally eccentric behaviours the trend has clearly been towards a more international outlook. The collapse of the Soviet Union, which had supplied almost all Libya's military equipment, dealt a blow to its capability. Lacking a meaningful industrial base, Libya struggled to even maintain the (slowly obsolescing) equipment it already had.

In recent times. Libya has again been dealing with Russia for military equipment. It was reported in February 2010 that a deal had been struck to buy arms worth US$2bn. The news agency Interfax reported that Libya wants to acquire 20 fighter planes, at least two S-300 air defence systems, several dozen T-90C tanks and other arms. Other reports however say that the signing of any contracts have been continually delayed because a financial agreement cannot be concluded.

For the first time, Libya is now looking outside Russia for its equipment. There have been discussion with French companies with regard to naval purchases. Polish companies have proposed upgrades for Libya's armoured vehicles and air defence radars as well as a range of new equipment.

In 2008, the UK signed a US$165mn contract to supply a tactical communications and data system. Deals have also been mooted with Italy and Ukraine. A Libyan delegation visited South Korea to explore the possibility of buying equipment there. Libya's oil revenues do give it the ability to complete quite large re-equipment programmes.

While the future remains quite uncertain there is reason for some level of optimism that the process of opening up and modernisation will continue. The greatest risk is probably the potential, unless the level of employment can be increased, that a large pool of unemployed and disaffected youth living under an ageing authoritarian regime will rebel.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Libya Security SWOT
- Libya Defence Industry SWOT
Global Defence Overview
- Global Hotspots
- Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
- United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
- Latin America: Beyond Lula
- Western Europe: All About Austerity
- Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
- South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
- Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
- Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
- Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security
- The Middle East In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- Regional Power Dynamics
- Nuclear Proliferation
- External Powers
- The Outlook For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Libya's Security Risk Rating
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Table: Libyan Insurgent Groups
- Latest Developments
- External Security Situation
- Latest Developments - Megrahi's Release
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 (including conscripted)
- Equipment
- International Deployments
- Table: International Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Latest Developments
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Forecast Scenario
- Defence Outlook
- Table: Libya's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Libya's Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
- Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: Libya - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Country Snapshot: Libya Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005

Full Table of Contents is available at:

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