"Iraq Defence & Security Report Q4 2010" is now available at Fast Market Research

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Iraq Defence & Security Report Q4 2010", is now available at Fast Market Research
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Sept. 9, 2010 - PRLog -- Iraq is at its most stable since the 2003 US-led invasion, but the numerous challenges it faces present significant risks - with the result that it could descend in to chaos once again. That said, our core scenario is for the gradual consolidation of the democratic political system, which will in turn provide a platform for long-term economic development. As well as ridding Iraq of its purported weapons of mass destruction, the 2003 US-led invasion was 'sold' by the protagonists as a move to bring freedom to a population living under Saddam Hussein's tyranny, and as an attempt to seed democracy in the Middle East.

In the subsequent years, as Iraq descended into sectarian violence and the civilian death toll soared, these apparently worthy intentions were dismissed by many observers as having been wildly over-optimistic. Moreover, some commentators suggested that these stated goals were merely a smokescreen for the US's real objectives, namely 'stealing' Iraq's oil. However, with levels of violence at post-invasion lows, the transition from dictatorship to democracy appears to be on more solid foundations. Indeed, March 2010 saw Iraq's third round of post-Saddam national elections, contested by a wide range of both religiousbased and secular political parties.

On the macroeconomic front, we have kept our GDP forecasts for Iraq broadly unchanged this quarter: between 2010 and 2014, we are pencilling in average growth of 5.6% per annum. We see real growth coming in at a relatively subdued 3.8% and 4.5% in 2010 and 2011 respectively, before expansion accelerates towards the end of the forecast period on the back of increases in oil production capacity. The cornerstone of the Iraqi economy for the foreseeable future will remain the oil (and, to a lesser extent, gas) sector. Iraq's proven oil reserves of 115bn bbl are the third highest in the world, behind those of Saudi Arabia and Iran, and given that much of the country is as yet unexplored there are upside risks to this figure. The next decade should see oil output increase considerably as the foreign oil companies, which over the past year have concluded major service contracts with Baghdad, ramp up their investments in Iraq.

Iraq does not have a functioning defence industry capable of meeting the requirements of its security forces. The nascent polity and the current security situation in the country, along with the instability and the widespread lack of infrastructure, have not allowed such an industry to be supported. It is very unlikely that a defence industry of note will be established at any level in Iraq for at least the next decade.

Iraq attracts a BMI composite security risk rating of 56, with a relatively strong interstate rating, at 88. Despite recent tensions with Turkey, Iraq's relatively high interstate rating suggests that it is highly unlikely that it will become a primary woicv party to an inter-state conflict in the medium term. Its security rating is let down by its domestic ratings, which are concerned with threats from terrorism and criminal groups.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/82997_iraq_defence_security_re...

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Iraq Security SWOT
- Iraq Defence Industry SWOT
- Iraq Political SWOT
- Iraq Economic SWOT
- Iraq Business Environment SWOT
Global Defence Overview
- Global Hotspots
- Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
- United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
- Latin America: Beyond Lula
- Western Europe: All About Austerity
- Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
- South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
- Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
- Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
- Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
- The Middle East In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- Regional Power Dynamics
- Nuclear Proliferation
- External Powers
- The Outlook For The Middle East
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Iraq's Security Risk Rating
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
Political Outlook
- Domestic Politics
- Long-Term Political Outlook
- Political Risk Analysis
Domestic Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Table: Iraq's Insurgent Groups
- External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (including conscripted)
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Iraq's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel)
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Activity
- Table: Iraq - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Company Profile
- Dabin Group
Country Snapshot: Iraq Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=8299...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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