29/07/2010 - SendMoneyHome's Daily Currency Report

July 29, 2010 - PRLog -- Good afternoon, yesterday saw a frank warning from Mervyn King (Governor of the Bank of England) about the state of the British economy and that the UK was by no means out of the woods. He cited poor corporate banking relationships and an overall weak economic outlook which could mean it is a while before the economy returned to ‘normal’. There was some reaction to this, however the pound remained strong as risk appetite continued and poor economic and housing data from the US was again a feature this month. Moneycorp, TorFX, Travalex and Currencies Direct provide the market highlights today.

As I continue to circulate my daily currency market reports, I have realised that there is a lot of technical jargon being included in our market reports by our specialists and myself. I have therefore written a short passage entitled ‘Understanding the Currency Markets’ to explain some of the more technical areas that are discussed in the market. It is available on the SendMoneyHome website below the currency rates themselves:

http://www.sendmoneyhome.org/foreign-currency-articles/ex...

Market introduction by Stuart May

Moneycorp

NZ interest rates move higher again

- But RBNZ dampens expectations
- BoE governor less downbeat on economy


'stable' exchange rates could be described as 'tedious'. That has been the case for most currencies over the last 24 hours. Cable has moved by less than the bid-offer spread. Sterling/euro is within a dozen ticks of Wednesday's opening. There was no help from the economic data; they did nothing. Nobody cared that German inflation accelerated from 0.9% to a provisional 1.1%. When US durable goods orders fell by -1.0% in June, instead of rising by the 1.0% that economists had predicted, the market did not bat an eyelid.

The only bit of excitement came overnight, again from the antipodes. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate from 2.75% to 3% but Governor Alan Bollard spoiled the party. The NZ dollar fell against everything when he said the 'pace and extent' of future rate increases would be more moderate than he had outlined last month. Investors had not been prepared for the change of tone so they sold the Kiwi, taking it two cents lower against the pound. Against the Australian dollar it almost precisely reversed the one-cent gain it had achieved 24 hours earlier as a result of lower than expected Australian inflation.

Sterling did wobble briefly this morning after Nationwide announced a
-0.5% fall for house prices in July and a slowdown to 6.6% in the annual rate of increase.

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TorFX

The Pound made significant gains against a basket of currencies yesterday, rising through $1.56 against the Dollar to the highest level in five-months, while the UK currency also re-visited the resistance level at 1.20 versus the Euro. The Australian Dollar has declined heavily against the Pound and U.S Dollar, after the latest inflationary data showed that consumer prices fell short of initial expectations in June, reducing the prospect of an Australian interest rate hike next week.

The Bank of England governor Mervyn King was speaking earlier yesterday and emphasised the need for caution on the economic recovery, saying that there may be a "considerable" way to go before UK monetary policy returns to normal. Policy makers have adopted an ultra loose policy stance, even as inflation exceeds the government's upper 3% limit.

The Pound has declined moderately this morning, after a report from the Nationwide Building Society showed that UK house prices fell in July for the first time in five months, as tighter lending conditions and government cuts slow the economy and deter first-time buyers. The average cost of a home in the UK fell 0.5% from June, but prices are still up 6.6% from this stage last year.
The Euro rose against the U.S Dollar and Japanese Yen yesterday, as improving risk appetite pushed global equity markets higher and reduced demand for the perceived safe haven assets. The single currency was close to its strongest level against the Dollar in two months, as the MSCI World Index rose for the fifth straight day.

http://www.sendmoneyhome.org/torfx

Travalex

With a week almost depleted of data from the UK, last week’s stronger economic data continued to offer support for the local currency. Positive sentiment still emanating from last week’s strong GDP and retail sales report helped sterling to hold on to its gains. Today the pound could come under pressure with the release of Nationwide house prices, which are expected to ease off.
The euro also continues to be supported by the recently improved economic data and on the view that concerns over the Euro Zone debt crisis have eased. Today will see the release of Euro Zone sentiment figures although these are not expected to improve significantly. Also of significance this morning will be German employment figures.
Weaker durable goods orders released in the US yesterday and a cautious outlook indicated in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report helped to support the US dollar. There is no data out today but the most important release of the week will be tomorrow’s US Q2 GDP data.

http://www.sendmoneyhome.org/travelex-overseas-payments/

Currencies Direct

The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervin King, warned yesterday that a continued economic recovery was still unsure and that inflation is likely to remain above the 2% target for the next year.  King delivered a rather frank message to banks saying that their harsh treatment of corporate clients was leading to a "heartbreaking" situation in Britain's small and medium sized business sector.  He said "It is a very tough job to build up these businesses and I do think that we need a pattern of finance that respects the need for these longer-term relationships." Mervin added "They [small and medium-sized companies] may have had the same banking relationship for 60, 80 years and then suddenly out of the blue, comes a letter churned out by a computer which says that the terms of our relationship have changed."  

Over to the other side of the pond and the pessimistic tone of the latest Fed Beige Book, published on July 28, echoes the weakness evident in U.S. economic activity data. Though economic activity improved on balance, districts reporting improvement indicated that the increases were "modest," two districts reported no increase in activity and two others reported slowing activity. Retail sales were generally positive, though gains were modest in most districts. Sales of necessities were stronger, while "big ticket items moved more slowly." Manufacturing activity continued expanding, though several districts reported slowing or flattening, while services sector conditions improved.

http://www.sendmoneyhome.org/currencies-direct

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