Vietnam Power Report Q3 2010: New research report available at Fast Market Research

July 28, 2010 - PRLog -- The new Vietnam Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.43% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with the risk of power shortages if generation expansion falls below the required level. BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,308 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% in 2010-2014.

Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Vietnam's thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 49.8TWh, or 0.85% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 1.11% of thermal generation in the region.

For Vietnam, oil accounted for an estimated 22% of 2009 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 10%, coal at 16% and hydro-power with 4%. Direct burning of wood and waste materials contributes a further 48% to overall energy consumption. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Vietnam's estimated 2009 energy market share of 1.76% is set to rise to 2.17% by 2014. An estimated 36TWh of hydroelectric demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 55TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market rising from 3.87% to 4.17% over the period.

Vietnam is now ranked sixth, just below Malaysia, in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to the growth potential of power consumption and energy demand, plus healthy scores in several other categories. It should be able to pull further away from Thailand below, and has longer-term potential to challenge Malaysia above it.

BMI is now forecasting Vietnamese real GDP growth averaging 5.92% per annum (pa) between 2010 and 2014, with a 2010 assumption of 4.40%. The population is expected to expand from 88.0mn to 94.1mn by 2014, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption set to increase by 45% and 57% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 64TWh in 2009 to 115TWh in 2014, providing a slight theoretical supply surplus if generation grows at no less than our assumed average annual rate of 10.2% (2010-2014). There is, however, a real risk of electricity shortages if the power industry cannot deliver adequate new capacity as demand soars.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Vietnamese electricity generation of 110.1%, which is at the top of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 42.2% in 2014-2019, down from 47.7% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to decrease from 47.0% in 2010-2014 to 40.3%, representing 106.2% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 105% between 2010 and 2019, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 113% over the same period. More detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/74029_vietnam_power_report_q3_...

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Vietnam Power Business Environment SWOT
- Vietnam Political SWOT
- Vietnam Economic Swot
Industry Overview
- Global
- Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
- Asia Pacific Region
- Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Market Overview
- Primary Energy Demand
- Power Generation
- Power Consumption
- Regulation And Competition
- Pricing
- Power Transmission
Business Environment
- Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings
- Vietnam's Power Rating
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Vietnam's Power Outlook
- Generation
- Gas-Fired
- Oil-Fired
- Coal-Fired
- Nuclear Energy
- Hydro-Electric
- Renewable Energy
- Power Costs
- Transmission
- Table: Vietnam's Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Vietnam's Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Vietnam's Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Vietnam's Power Costs, 2007-2014
- Assumptions And Methodology
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Power Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Global Snapshot
- Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019
- Regional Outlook
- Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
- Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Vietnam Country Overview
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
- Electricity Of Vietnam (EVN)

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=7402...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

# # #

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.