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Follow on Google News | New market study, "Japan Metals Report Q3 2010", has been publishedNew Materials research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In FY2009/10, strong demand in Asia helped raise steel exports 14.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to a record 38.67mn tonnes; Asian markets represented 85% of total exports. While the Asian market is strong, there are fears of contagion from Europe and the US on which China is dependent for exports. Additionally, financial market developments and the danger of deflation are constant risks to growth in the Japanese economy. Meanwhile, runaway demand by China for iron ore and moves by mining firms toward more profitable, short-term pricing systems could undermine Japanese steelmakers' profitability. Iron ore prices are set to double in 2010, meaning the Japanese steel industry will face a JPY1bn increase in the costs of raw materials that needs to be passed onto consumers. In April 2010, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported that leading Japanese steelmakers had agreed an import price of US$106 per tonne with Brazilian iron ore producer Vale, an increase of 92% y-o-y. However, this new price is effective only for the April-June quarter, a change from prior practice, where import prices have been set for a one-year period. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) forecast crude steel output rising 4.3% quarter-onquarter (q-o-q) in Q210 to 27.65mn tonnes, although this is still 10% below the Q208 peak. On an annualised basis, it would bring output to 110mn tonnes. However, uncertainties over domestic and external markets coupled with speculative steel purchases and rising raw materials prices are clouding the outlook. Bearing in mind the downside risks, BMI forecasts crude steel output rising by 15.3% to 100.91mn tonnes in 2010 with hot-rolled output likely to rise by 12.4% to 91.06mn tonnes. However, with BMI envisaging a long period of low domestic growth from 2011, it will take until 2014 before steel output levels begin to match pre-recession rates. A significant risk factor is the slowing effect of government stimulus programmes across Asia plus the impact of slowing growth and the danger of a double-dip recession in Europe and North America that will have a direct and indirect effect on Japanese metals exports. BMI estimates that domestic finished steel consumption fell 23.4% y-o-y to 58.5mn tonnes in 2009, but will rise 10.1% in 2010 to 64.5mn tonnes and should reach 75.6mn tonnes by 2014, close to pre-recession levels. If domestic private consumption fails to pick up, Japan will be more reliant on exports to Asian markets, which showed signs of recovery in H209 as a result of the country's massive stimulus spending. However, there are two risks for Japan on this front. Firstly, a double-dip slump in China - as a result of the excessive stimulus, which would need to be reined in - would naturally weigh on Japan. Secondly, the strength of the yen - with the currency soaring to a seven-year high in Q309 - could sap the tentative rebound in exports. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Partial Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Japan Political SWOT - Japan Economic SWOT Global Overview - Metals Market Overview - Table: World's Top 10 Steel Producing Countries (mn tonnes) - Table: Recently Added And Planned Smelter Capacity - Commodities Forecast - Nickel To Average US$22,000/tonne In 2010 - Table: BMI Nickel Forecast - Table: Nickel - Market Strategy - Aluminium Update: Downside Risks To Average Price of US$2,100/tonne In 2010 - Table: BMI Aluminium Forecast - Table: Aluminium - Commodities Forecast - Gold To Average US$1,150/oz In 2010 - Table: BMI Gold Forecast - Table: Gold - Commodities Forecast - Copper - Table: BMI Copper Forecast - Table: Copper Regional Overview - Table: Top 10 Asian Steel Producers, 2008 Forecast Scenario - Table: Japan's Metals Industry, 2007-2014 ('000 tonnes unless stated) Macroeconomic Outlook - Table: Japan - Economic Activity Competitive Landscape - Steel - Table: Top Japanese Steel Producers, Worldwide Capacity, 2008 - Production and domestic sales - Japan Crude Steel Production (000 tonnes) - By Process - Japan Steel Production (000 tonnes) - By Category - Japan Steel Production (000 tonnes) - Japan: Steel Production By Products (000 tonnes) - Trade - Japan Exports, Q110 - Latest developments - Financial results - Table: Output At Sumitomo Steel Works In Japan, 2007 ('000 tonnes) - Table: Crude Steel Production At NSC Steel Works In Japan, 2008 ('000 tonnes) - Table: Crude Steel Production Capacity At JFE Steel Works In Japan ('000 tonnes) - Aluminium - Table: Japan Production Of Aluminium And Its Fabricated Products, Q108-Q309 ('000 tonnes) - Table: Production of Aluminium and its Fabricated Products (000 tonnes), 2009 - Table: Aluminium Imports and Exports, 2009 (000 tonnes) - Table: Japan Demand of Aluminium End-Uses, 2009 (000 tonnes) Company Profiles - Nippon Steel Corporation - Sumitomo Metal Industries Global Assumptions - Q3 2010 Update - Table: Global & Regional Real Gdp Growth (%) - Table: Real Gdp Growth (%) - Consensus Forecasts - Table: Global Assumptions - Table: Developed States, Real Gdp Growth Forecasts Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. End
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