Recently released market study: Romania Autos Report Q3 2010

July 9, 2010 - PRLog -- The Automotive Manufacturers and Importers Association (APIA) in Romania has said that new car sales are not expected to exceed 100,000 units in 2010, owing to a lack of financing. BMI believes Romania remained mired in the financial crisis and suffered a drastic economic slowdown throughout 2009 and as a result we do not see passenger sales beginning to show signs of life until late in 2010.

Indeed, four months into 2010, vehicle sales reached only 41,500 units, down over 30% compared with the same period last year, suggesting that Romanias improved car scrappage scheme has proved far from popular. Automobile Dacia, the local subsidiary of France's Renault, seems to be the only carmaker to have benefitted, cornering a 38% market share in April, its biggest in five years. Others remained far from competitive, with Ford Motor and Volkswagen achieving respective sales of 950 units and 850 units in April.

The immediate outlook for the economy  and car sales  is uncertain. The Romanian government has stated that the country may achieve growth of over 1.5% in 2010, Reuters reported in May. It has pledged drastic public spending cuts to rein in the deficit and prevent tax rises. However, BMI believes growth will be even lower at just 1.1%, although this is marked improvement on the 7% contraction recorded in 2009.

BMI is currently expecting sales to remain under last year's, reaching only 149,837 units in FY2010 in our best case scenario. However, we see strong downside risks to these forecasts should consumer confidence continue to remain weak during the rest of the year. We expect steady sales growth after 2010, but by the end of the forecast period in 2014, sales will still be below 2007-2008 levels, at 290,002, around the volume seen in 2006, but significantly below the market peak in 2008.

This makes the strategy of Romania-based automotive firms, most notably Dacia, to continue to diversify into export markets the most sensible course. Indeed, Dacia will renew its whole line up of models in preparation for its launch in the UK by late 2012. The Duster SUV will be the headline model, but only one of several to be prepared before the British launch, including the new Logan, which will still be competitively priced, despite the affluence of the UK market. Dacias expansion across Europe is seen as a move by Renault group to pre-empt Chinese firms move into the continent. Leading Chinese automakers are setting up plants in and around Europe, including in Russia, Turkey and Bulgaria, with plans to increase their presence in European markets.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Romania Auto Industry SWOT
- Romania Political SWOT
- Romania Economic SWOT
- Romania Business Environment SWOT
Regional Overview
- Crisis At Toyota
- Table: Toyota Vehicle Recall Timeline
- Toyota's European Dream
- Opportunities For Some
- Risk To The Industry
Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Western, Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Production And Sales
- Table: Romania Auto Historical Data And Forecasts, Production
- Table: Romania Auto Historical Data And Forecasts, Sales
- Trade
- Table: Romania Auto Historical Data And Forecasts, Exports/Imports
- Economic Contribution
- Table: Romania Auto Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts, GDP
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
- Table: Romania - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Romanian Automotive Sector, 20089(CBUs)
- Table: Romania - Key Players In The Vehicles Market
- Used Vehicles
- Ford Motor
- Automobile Dacia
- Labour Issues
- Suppliers
- Commercial Vehicles
- Table: Romania - Top 10 Brands On The LCV And Minibus Market, 2006-2008 (CBUs)
- Table: Romania - Top 10 Brands On The HCV And Bus Market, 2006-2008 (CBUs)
Company Monitor
- PSA Peugeot Citroen Regional Profile
- Financial Woes
- Focus On Faurecia
- Merger Opportunity
- Eye On Eastern Europe
Company Profiles
- Automobile Dacia
- Automobile Craiova
- Renault
- Continental
- Roman Brasov
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2005-2010 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2006-2010
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
- Sources

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