"Turkey Defence & Security Report Q3 2010" is now available at Fast Market Research

June 29, 2010 - PRLog -- Turkey's foreign policy orientation is expected to continue to shift away from traditional alliances with the EU and US and toward enhancing relations with new partners to the east and south of the country. For the time being, we do not see this as mutually exclusive from Ankara's existing strategic objectives and obligations: namely to join the EU and membership in NATO. That said, over the long run, especially should the Justice and Development Party government renew its mandate in 2011, we caution that this could signal the beginning of a more pronounced geo-strategic shift. While this will provide benefits in the form of diversified foreign trade and investment, it will also elevate political uncertainty and potentially accentuate domestic social divisions.

We expect Turkey to maintain recent trends of army and arms expenditure as one of the world's largest arms importers. The country has the second-largest armed forces in NATO. However, Turkey's defence budget and number of troops will probably fall in the coming years with a weaker economy and a changing risk profile.

Underlying socio-ideological divisions will continue to pose serious challenges to political stability in Turkey for the foreseeable future. Sporadic crises on the back of ructions between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government and secularist institutions, including the military and the judiciary, should be expected. We stress though, that with the government maintaining a plurality of public support, that the likelihood of a permanent policy reversal or a military coup as seen in the 1980s and 1990s is limited.

We stand by our core view that Turkey will experience a healthy macroeconomic recovery in 2010, emerging as a major outperformer in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). That said, we caution that looming rate hikes, weak demand from the eurozone and fiscal austerity measures will weigh on economic expansion. As such, we maintain that Turkish real GDP growth will not return to pre-recession levels, rising back to 3.7% in 2010 and further to 4.5% in 2011.

The macroeconomic recovery in Turkey is expected to gain pace through H110, alongside sharp increases in industrial production and domestic lending growth. The Turkish banking sector is well positioned to expand consumer credit, which will push private consumption and capital investments significantly higher in 2010, while the export sector should be lifted by improvements in global demand.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Turkey Security SWOT
- Turkey Defence Industry SWOT
- Turkey Political SWOT
- Turkey Economic SWOT
- Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Global Defence Overview
- United States: Major Tests For Obama In 2010
- Table: Election Timetable, 2010
- Western Europe: Fiscal Austerity Will Be Unpopular
- Central And Eastern Europe: New Governments, Old Problems
- Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
- Africa: The Election Conundrum
- Asia: Broadly Stable, But 'Rogues' Need Vigilance
- Latin America: Political Risks Contained, But Watch Cartels
- Wild Cards To Watch
Middle East Security Overview
- The Middle East In A Global Context
- Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
- Scenarios For The Middle East
Europe Security Overview
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Turkey's Security Risk Ratings
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index
- Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
- Domestic Politics
- Foreign Policy
Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Table: Insurgent Groups
- External Security Situation
- Table: Background Brief - Cyprus
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Armed Forces
- International Deployments
- Table: Foreign Deployments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Structure
- Arms Trade Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Key Players In Turkey's Defence Sector
- Procurement Trends And Developments
- Latest Developments
Forecast Scenario
- Defence Outlook
- Table: Turkey's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel)
- Table: Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Turkey - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Company Profiles
- Aselsan Military Electronics Industry Inc
- Havelsan AS
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: Methodology
- Sources

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